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A proposal to eliminate the spread of COVID-19 in Ireland

This is a long one. There is no TL;DR, but Google tells me it should take about 10 minutes to read. Or, you can skip to The Plan - Summary if you want the bullet points.
But why should you give this any time at all?
My background is in data analysis. Making sense of numbers is what I do for a living. I have been studying COVID-19 since I was locked down in March and the experience has been frustrating in equal measure. The difference between what was happening on the ground, and the story that the media told was genuinely alarming. The government / NPHET never even tried to stop the virus getting into the country, and no one held them to account for their (non)decisions. The disastrous consequences are all around us, and much of it was preventable.
Six months later, and the country has barely moved on. The ‘experts’ have no goals and little control over the virus. The media frame every issue as a crass binary choice between more or less restrictions and are otherwise happy just to have people to point their fingers at. The government / NPHET has nothing to offer the people, other than admonishments to do better and repeated cycle of restrictions.
Meanwhile students, artists, the over 70s, small business owners, the entire events and hospitality industries, and regular people who cannot WFH have been left swinging in the wind. Some have been evicted, others are relying on drugs to get by. This situation is not just a problem for one or two parts of our society: this is a widespread degradation of our quality of life. If I can do anything to help, I feel obliged to try.

Context
As I see it, we have three choices:
I won’t argue over technocratic definitions like ‘elimination’, ‘eradication’ or ‘suppression’. These distinctions are semantic in an environment of oppressive civic restrictions, mass unemployment, waves of business closures, and general misery. Whatever gets us to a place where we can live our lives as normal (or close enough), and the public health infrastructure can take care of the virus, that’s what I’m aiming for.
This proposal cannot work without public support. No proposal can work without public support. Public adherence is the single most important variable in the equation, yet it is the one that the politicians and the media and the ‘experts’ have ignored. FG burned through a lot of goodwill in the first lockdown (and money, and resources, and lives…). Instead of vilifying people who aren’t adhering to the rules, policymakers need to recognise the sacrifices that the people made (which were subsequently squandered) and they need to earn that trust back.
This proposal cannot work without support from the North. That doesn’t mean that we need to convince them to adopt our plan. It means we need to convince them that the goal is worthwhile and achievable. From there we can work together to coordinate our policies. Managing our own affairs with competence, would be a good start. Picking up the phone to talk to them, instead of trying to browbeat them through the media, would also help.
Irrespective of your goals or beliefs, some facts are certain: there will be lockdowns, there will be government spending to support the economy, and the virus will demand public health resources. All of that will happen in the coming months and years, whether we have a plan or not. The question is whether those resources are used to solve the problem, or whether they are wasted on a plan that keeps us going around in circles.
So yes, there will be lockdowns in this proposal, but they will not be FG lockdowns i.e. lock them down and throw away the key. Through intelligent policies and a greater mobilisation of resources, we can do so much more with our lockdowns to reduce the burden on the people and make their experience more tolerable. Indeed, that trade-off always exists in public policy: better policymaking = happier people. Which is why the politicians usually get the blame, and rightly so.
We need to move to a more ‘war time’ mindset. Not because we need a shared enemy to unite us, but because we need to mobilise every possible resource at our disposal and focus it on the single most important issue affecting us all. We need more tests, we need vehicles for mobile testing units, we need facilities for quarantines. Wherever there is spare capacity, we need to find a way to put it to good use. We need to take most of the power away from the narrow-minded medics, and get the rest of our society and our civic infrastructure involved in planning e.g. community representatives, legal experts, business leaders, An Garda, the army etc.
People want to invest in their communities, they want to help their friends and neighbours. There are people all over the country who would rather be volunteering as part of a national plan to get rid of COVID-19, than to be sitting at home on the PUP, going crazy listening to the ‘experts’ – who failed to prevent this – talk about more lockdowns. We need to harness that latent energy and build it into the plan.
One of the most important factors that is within our control, is the degree to which policymakers communicate with the people. And I mean real communication, not press releases or attention-seeking speeches from the other side of the world. We need to talk to the people, listen to them, answer their questions, take their feedback on board. The people aren’t stupid. They know a good plan when they see it – which is why few are paying attention to the ‘Living With The Virus’ stuff – and they have valuable information that can help make that plan work.
Underlying these points is a need to create intelligent rules, and to enforce them strictly. Strict does not mean harsh. Strict enforcement is not authoritarianism, and it is not an invitation to a fight; it is simply administrative competence. In the context of a contagious outbreak, administrative competence is the difference between life and death.
I’ll finish this section with the caveat that all parameters are suggestions or placeholders. The exact numbers will depend on resources, on more data and further analysis, and on input from communities and other stakeholders – all of which is within our control.

The Plan – Summary
Like any problem in life, if you can’t solve it directly, you break it down into smaller, less complex parts.
Instead of putting the whole country into lockdown and trying to eradicate the virus from the whole island at the same time – a miserable experience for all – we should go county by county until the job is done. We seal off a county, flood it with resources, clear it of COVID-19, and then let it reopen as normal. We repeat the process for neighbouring counties and then combine them when they are cleared, to create a larger ‘Cleared Zone’. The process continues and the Cleared Zone keeps growing until it covers the whole island.
This approach allows us to focus our resources on one area at a time (nurses, doctors, tests, volunteers etc) instead of spreading them over the whole country. We can be more comprehensive in our testing and quarantining measures, and more confident in our plans. Short, sharp, strict lockdowns work best.
By maximising the ratio of resources to population, we also lower the burden on the people. In particular, we minimise the amount of time that people spend in lockdown, and the less time they spend in lockdown, the more likely the plan is to work.
This structured approach also makes it easier for us to measure our progress and make reliable forecasts. We can allocate our resources more efficiently and plan our responses more effectively. Observers can watch our progress and judge for themselves whether it is a good idea (i.e. politicians in the North and / or protestors in Dublin).
Perhaps most important of all, the structure makes it easier to explain the idea to the people and get buy-in before anything happens. We can outline the plan, explain how it works, explain how it compares to the alternatives, and then give them realistic estimates of what would be required and how long it would take. Then we can hear their feedback and take the conversation and planning from there.
I have heard any people talking about elimination and ZeroCovid, but do any of them have a plan for getting to zero? Or a plan to get the people on board?
Step 1: More structure and responsibility from leaders
Step 2: Less uncertainty, easier decisions, better outcomes, less stress for everyone
Step 3: Profit. Elimination.

The Plan – Implementation
We isolate a county and lock it down for an initial 3 weeks. An Garda man the county borders. They are supported by the army, who provide boots on the ground so that An Garda aren’t stretched. Most routes are closed off so that all essential travel goes through a few well-manned checkpoints. If we do a good job with planning and communication, there won’t be much work to do.
We test systemically high-risk households and high-risk individuals early and often i.e. large households and essential workers. With help from local volunteers, medics screen as many people as possible every day. We use multiple measures and repeated applications to improve the quality of our results. We want to identify and remove cases at the earliest possible point, both to reduce the chance of further infection, and to protect the individual’s health.
Low risk confirmed cases (young / healthy) go to a safe and comfortable quarantine. Local hotels and guest houses could be used, ideally before we invest in building quarantine facilities. Local taxis, kitted out with extra protective equipment, could take them there. High risk confirmed cases (older / comorbidities) go by ambulance to local medical facilities as required.
During this period, we work with local politicians, community leaders, residence associations etc to ensure that everyone is looked after (in reality, these conversations will have started weeks before). We get our neighbourhoods communicating, looking out for each other, making sure they’ve got enough food or heating or whatever else they need. Local volunteers and taxi drivers can do odd jobs like sending packages, collecting prescriptions, lifting heavy stuff, or just checking in on people. If it is feasible, we can even invite local artists to play gigs for people in their streets or apartments.
Towards the end of the second week, we begin a mass testing program with the ultimate goal of testing every person in the county (scale depends on resources). Once we have completed the tests and cleared the confirmed cases into quarantine, we can begin a slow, staggered opening process. We must be especially conservative at this point to ensure no slippage.
When one county is clear, we move to the next one, and repeat the process. When we have cleared two bordering counties, we can join them together in a bigger Cleared Zone and the process continues from there. Eventually the Cleared Zone covers the whole country, except Dublin (or more realistically, the Pale).
What would the other counties do while they wait for their turn? I’m assuming that, they would be doing whatever the ‘Living With The Virus’ plan dictates. This proposal succeeds in line with what happens in the sealed off zones, so I am more concerned with them. However, it would speed up the process if the bordering counties could be encouraged to get a head start. If the plan is going successfully, I’m confident they would.
With its population density and its complexity, Dublin / the Pale will be the last county to be cleared. However, given that every other county would be cleared by that point, and with so much effort having been put in, it might make more sense just to burn Dublin down. We could go with a concrete mausoleum as per Chernobyl, but it might be easier and quicker if we just raised the city and started from scratch. The country needs to rebalance, so it’d be two birds with one stone.
Or maybe we call that plan B. Dublin’s plan A would follow the same principles as for the rest of the country. Break it into smaller parts, focus resources on one area at a time, use layers of risk measures where precision isn’t an option, and get cases as early as possible, using whatever resources available. By that stage the rest of the country would be clear and the demand for medical resources low. We would have learned a lot along the way, and we would have plenty of ammo to throw at the problem.
In general, the more resources we have, the faster we can move. The county by county approach that I have outlined above is too slow. With greater resources, we can increase the number of counties that are being cleared at any one time. One option is to work by province. Another would be to define the zones with respect to observed travel routes, in order to reduce the risk of leakage and reduce the inconvenience on local communities.
At the end of the day, lines have to be drawn somewhere, and some people will inevitably lose out. The better we communicate with people in advance, the lower the burden on the people and the more of these problems we can avoid.
Following on from that, one of the skills we need to take from this crisis is the ability to isolate and quarantine regions. Whether it is a city, a town, a county, a specific building, or even the entire country, we need to be able to seal it off and control movement in and out. This is an essential tool for outbreak management – whatever the outbreak and whatever the disease.
The same goes for individuals. We need to be able to create and operate safe, comfortable, and effective quarantines, and to do so at short notice. It should be a matter of national embarrassment that FG and NPHET couldn’t even organise a quarantine in a pandemic.
The whole process might take 3 to 4 months. That means we would have cut off all non-essential air travel for that time, but it doesn’t mean the whole country is in lockdown for 3 or 4 months. The lockdown is staggered, and the individual’s experience will depend on their location and their place in the ‘queue’.
The first group of counties to go into lockdown will also be the first to come out. Once they have eliminated the spread of the virus, they will return to a normal, although somewhat isolated, society. The experience steadily improves as more and more counties join them in the Cleared Zone (or steadily deteriorates, depending on your county pride).
While the first group is in lockdown, the rest of the country continues as normal i.e. living with the virus. Everyone watches as the first group goes through its lockdown (just think of the #banter). Several weeks later, as the first group is opening up, the second group is preparing to go in to lockdown. As the second group comes out, the third group goes in etc etc and the staggered lockdowns roll like a wave across the country.
Every county goes from Living With The Virus -> intelligent lockdown (needs a better name) -> Cleared Zone. The earlier you are in the queue, the less time you spend Living With The Virus and the more time you spend in the Cleared Zone. The individual would only be in a strict lockdown for a matter of weeks, maybe 3-6 depending on the complexity of the region and the resources available. For counties with smaller populations that have shown that they can do a good lockdown, it will be quicker. For Dublin, it will be slower.

Strengths
I think this proposal has a lot of strengths. It’s a plan, for a start. We haven’t had a plan since this thing began (the FG lockdown wasn’t a plan – it was the inevitable consequence of not having a plan). The leaders take more responsibility to lower the burden on the people, it mobilises idle resources, and it fosters communication and community across the country.
These are three strengths that I want to emphasise.
1 It provides clarity
This might be the most important point.
Uncertainty is painful. Uncertainty is a cost. Even if the bad thing is unlikely to happen, just the fact that it is a risk, or that it could happen means that you live with a cloud over your head. Suffering is bad enough on its own, but suffering for an unknown length of time is torture. And if that period is determined at the whim of a politician or an ‘expert’, that is a recipe for society-wide anger and even civil disorder.
With this proposal, we can forecast the length of the period of lockdown with greater accuracy. The people will be able to understand what is being asked of them. We can make plans around resources required versus those available. The economists can make forecasts. Businesses can plan their finances. The people can plan their weddings, book their holidays, get back to training, sign up for courses, and have things to look forward to.
At the end of the day, any successful proposal must remove the uncertainty and provide meaningful clarity to households and businesses.
2 Never let a crisis go to waste
This plan will require tools and capabilities like rapid local testing, safe quarantines, rapid isolation of towns and regions, emergency decision-making frameworks etc. If we don’t have a capability, then we need to build it. When people say ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ this is what they mean: you build the tools in the crisis that will help you protect yourself from the next one.
Nature works the same way. You lift weights until the muscle fibres tear, then they grow back stronger. We build aerobic endurance by pushing ourselves to a limit, then our body naturally reacts to increase the limit. A vaccine works similarly by stimulating antibodies for the disease. Well, we need a civic emergency vaccine for Ireland. These tools are the antibodies that will protect us next time. The sooner we build them, the better. Now is the time, not later.
3 It's the only way we can protect the economy
The risk to the economy isn’t the next few months of revenue. We can borrow to cover lost income in the short run. The real risk is a wave of defaults that precipitates a financial crisis.
As more individuals and businesses are put under financial pressure, more borrowers will default on their debts. But one man’s debt is another man’s asset, so as the borrowers default, the lender’s financial situation also deteriorates. Defaults are contagious, and if a wave of defaults threatens a major lender, the entire financial system will be at risk.
Only an elimination plan can protect the economy. Along with the virus and the uncertainty it creates, we need to eliminate the risk of financial contagion.

Weaknesses
Could ya be arsed

The End Goal
Think about what’s on the other side of this…
This is a massive challenge – the kind that defines a nation. However you think of your community, this would give you something to be proud of for generations. It would be like Italia ’90, except 10 times bigger, because we would be the players, we would be the ones making it happen.
We’d become the first country in Europe to eliminate the virus. And of all the countries in the world, we’d be doing it from the largest deficit too. Those Taiwanese and Kiwis made it easy for themselves with their preparation and their travel restrictions and their competent leaders. Our challenge is much greater than theirs, but they show us what is possible.
Have you ever wanted to scoff at the Germans for being disorganised? Wouldn’t you love to have a reason to mock the Danes? Aren’t you sick of hearing about New Zealand? Let’s make the Kiwis sick of hearing about the Irish!
If we take this challenge on, the world’s media will be on us. The FT, the Economist, the NYT, the Guardian, Monacle, Wired, the New Scientist, China Daily, RT, Good Housekeeping, Horse and Hound, PornHub… all of these international media empires would be tracking our progress, interviewing key people, reporting daily, willing us on. The world is desperate for good news, and we can be the ones to give it to them.
We would become a model for other nations to follow. They would take the Irish model and adapt it to their own situation. Instead of us copying other nations, they would be copying us. Instead of a pat on the head for the diddy little Irish fellas, we would be literally LEADING THE WORLD.
Back at home, we get our lives back, and society can breathe again, free of restrictions. The over 70s come out of hibernation. The students go back to university. The protests stop because people go back to work and we announce an inquiry into what exactly happened in February and March. The pubs go back to being pubs. Our hospitality industry is taken off life support. The tidal wave of bankruptcies is avoided. We can play sport and celebrate the wins. We stop talking about things we can or can't do. Just imagine that first session... And imagine how good it would feel knowing that you had worked for it, and knowing that you had set the nation on a better path for generations to come...
I think it’s worth a lash! Don’t you?
submitted by 4SMD1MCW to ireland [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
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What is binary IQ options? And how does it benefit you in the short run and long run?

Binary IQ options is a form of bitcoin investments that enables traders to earn money through investing and trading bitcoins. Well as some of us know, bitcoin is a form of digital currency also known as cryptocurrency. On wall street, one of the main criticisms of bitcoin is that it was invented only a decade ago by a computer programmeprogrammers, with no real fundamental, underlying value. It's just a made up thing as they say, with a volatile price that only derives from what the next buyer is willing to pay but in reality, they're just scared, bitcoin is taking over both as a store of value and also as an exchange medium. So how does binary IQ options work then? Firstly, an investment platform plays a major role in it, they work with standard automated mining systems that you can use to grow even the smallest bitcoins into huge amounts, but lastly none of it is possible without daily trade signals. The daily trade signals are needed to carry out successful trades and they determine the investors profits after trading. The trading last for 5 days.
Binary IQ options has changed a lot of people's lives not only were some free from the clutches and depths of their 9-5 jobs but also were they able to thread a path to financial freedom!! So many people were debt free, others were able to retire early, a few more still focused on their jobs, and work from home. Question is what would you want your story to be?
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‘They are us’ – an urgent, uncomfortable call to action

"By Morgan Godfery | Contributing writer March 13, 2020
A proper reckoning with March 15 2019 demands that we take up a generations-long struggle to destroy all the exclusions that make up our society and produce the conditions we know as racism. An essay by Morgan Godfery.
This work is made possible by Spinoff Members.

1

I was cleaning out the garage the other day and found an old Crusaders jersey. If I remember right it’s their team kit from 2005, the white knight sewn into the chest and the old Ford logo printed in the centre. The jersey itself is still as fresh as new paint, a novelty purchase from when we were passing through Christchurch on our way to Christmas in Oamaru. I was a year 9 in school and a Super 12 jersey was the kind of item you had, just so you could say you had one. This is about the same time it was still acceptable to whisper things like how the white players in the Crusaders were responsible for their team’s championship success, playing their footy with brains, and the problem with mid-table finishers like the Blues were too many brown boys who only knew how to throw their weight around.
I’m not quite white-passing, but my upper middle-class accent, generally preppy affect, and not-quite-pasty-not-quite-brown skin makes me ethnically ambiguous enough that people are happy to share their thoughts about big Polynesian units, Asian immigrants, Muslim terrorists, and the Jews. The first time I remember running into entirely casual racism was in Christchurch, on the way back from that Christmas in Oamaru, when a retail worker caught up with me on the street apologising for short-changing me in store. I didn’t realise or particularly care, but years later I thought about his apology. “Sorry, I just Jew-ed you”.
At the time it was nothing to me. In high school and later in my flat at Victoria that was just what people said. “Jewing” someone was a verb for ripping them off, taking an advantage, or just a way to give someone a bit of stick. In my experience it was especially popular with the Christ’s College boys, which probably has something to do with the city’s private schools inheriting their culture from Britain’s public schools. “A Jewish boy at a public school almost invariably had a bad time,” wrote Orwell in 1945. Things probably aren’t that much better in 2020. The other day I read an old mate – a private schooler too – on Facebook joking about how Jews are useless at sport.
I suspect for good liberals this is probably shocking. This isn’t language that ever sneaks through our circles. But outside of our cosy hermetic world words like coconut, boonga, fob, wog, gook, curry muncher, towelhead, the hundred variations on the N word, and “Jew” as more than a noun are common currency. The stains from that vocabulary seep into every part of the culture and society, and nothing much has ever been done to wash it out. The first time I remember encountering deliberate, menacing racism is on the rugby paddock when a white coach was yelling at my mate on the wing “run you BLACK bastard”. I thought about that moment when spectators in Christchurch were caught vilifying Fijian player Sake Aca in 2015, screaming from the stands “black cunt”.
Fandoms like to imagine their sports, multicultural rugby especially, as pure and independent realms (“a level playing field”) absent race, politics, or any disadvantage other than skill. It’s a seductive argument, I’ll concede that much, but it’s so self-evidently false it still surprises me every time someone insists on it earnestly. Sport? Not racist? In 2012 talkback callers and trolls went after then Blues coach Pat Lam and his family for the great crime of simply being Polynesian. In 2010 former All Black Andy Haden was put through the wringer for telling media the Crusaders only recruit a maximum three “darkies”, presumably to preserve the team’s famous brain-brawn balance.
Even in the laudatory histories New Zealand rugby was, and probably remains, a notorious nexus for down home conservatives, know-nothing administrators, and out and out racists. In 1960 the rugby union sent the All Blacks on tour to Apartheid South Africa, waving the team off without any Māori players or officials in a remarkable sop to the country’s colour bar. In 1976 the national team were sent back, this time defying international calls to cut sporting ties with the racist state. In protest at the tour more than twenty African countries led a boycott at that year’s Olympics, a moral stand that should perpetually shame New Zealand Rugby. Not racist? As if.
In an ideal world the Canterbury Crusaders would study this history, carefully considering whether their decision to retain the team name is another brick in rugby’s wall of shame. The managers might consider how “deus vult”, meaning God wills it, a battle cry from the first Crusade, and “Acre 1189”, a reference to a siege in the third Crusade, are URL shorthands and postscripts for white supremacist users constructing a historiography for their neo-fascist movement. The managers might also reflect on how real-life white supremacists in countries like Brazil, Norway, and Australia are adopting the Knights Templar, the Christian warrior monks who made up the crusading hordes, and the literal white knight that was formerly the Canterbury team’s logo, as their saints.
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CRUSADERS MASCOTS AT AMI STADIUM IN CHRISTCHURCH IN 2019. PHOTO: DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES. FEATURE IMAGE: FRIDAY PRAYERS AT AL NOOR MOSQUE ON MARCH 22, 2019. PHOTO BY SANKA VIDANAGAMA/NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
As it happens the team’s managers, after kicking the issue to a “market research” firm shortly after March 15, made the call to save the name. It’s an unconscionable decision, for obvious reasons, but the team bosses seem cognitively incapable of reasoning through the issue and its implications beyond mere “branding”. In a statement announcing the name-stay the team’s PR people wrote “for us, the Crusaders name is a reflection of the crusading spirit of this community,” as if it’s possible to just reframe the holy war using a press release. It’s a cretinous thing to do when not even a year earlier an alleged shooter undertook a massacre at the Al Noor and Linwood mosques as part of his own “crusade”.
A28-year-old man is before the High Court facing 52 murder charges relating to the events of March 15. What we know about his life is little, save the things he was curating about himself online, which in this essay I treat with caution and scepticism. But it seems clear enough the Australian citizen was an obsessive for the Crusades, scribbling references to the religious war for the Holy Land across the weapon police accuse the man of using to carry out the massacre. Investigative reports note in his pilgrimage to Europe the 28-year-old – who pleaded not guilty to all charges – made particular visits to Christian-Muslim battlegrounds in the former Ottoman Empire, apparently as a tribute to the crusading warmongers he was so keen to match.
To outsiders the obsession with this particular historical episode is probably bizarre, if not creepy. But in the nether world this man and his neo-fascist comrades inhabit they imagine they’re acting out the thesis and title in Samuel P Huntington’s The Clash of Civilisations. In his 1993 essay the American political scientist argues that in the immediate past global conflicts were between warring ideological factions – capitalism and communism – but post-Cold War conflict will centre between clashing civilisations. The West vs the rest. Christianity vs Islam. The Crusades II.
In Huntington’s telling, and in the alleged shooter’s head, the West and the Islamic world are fated to compete. Yet that competition won’t centre over economic issues like stable oil supply lines, or even political issues like the territorial integrity of Western allies in the Middle East, instead the clash is meant to happen over Islam’s apparently regressive values and the West’s progressive tradition. It’s a striking thesis, especially for the generals and politicians who were hunting for cover for their military adventures in the Middle East and East Africa in the late 80s and early 90s. But it was always a notion that was impossible to apply, reducing the Islamic world to a series of stereotypes (it never had its enlightenment) and setting it against an equally reductive West (it did have its enlightenment).
The late Edward Said, the Palestinian scholar, cut right to the heart of Huntington’s argument in identifying it wasn’t an argument at all – rather, he was “a partisan, an advocate of one so-called civilisation over all others” who maps billions of people into “vague” and “manipulable” abstractions and then presents it as a true account of the world. “Thus to build a conceptual framework around the notion of us-versus-them is in effect to pretend that the principal consideration is epistemological and natural – our civilisation is now and accepted, theirs is different and strange – whereas in fact the framework separating us from them is belligerent, constructed, and situational.”
In other words, the thing separating the Christian us from the Islamic them, to the extent a clean separation is possible at all, is history – of colonialism, of Cold War power politics – and not immutable categories like “the West” or “the East”. That the categories exist at all are a function of history and political convenience, not a universal law stipulating conflict as the only end. Yet for the neo-fascists like the alleged shooter every thought they cherish orbits this particular rock: that the entire Islamic world is one dirty blob of terrorism, rape, and invasion, and that all its more than one billion members act with a single purpose and co-ordination unknown in the entire history of humanity.
But why commit to a dichotomy so obviously stupid at all? The 28-year-old grew up in Grafton, a waterway town in northern New South Wales, and in his time on the Eastern seaboard it seems unlikely he ever actually met many Muslim people at all. In his own family’s account they were just ordinary Aussies. It’s impossible to interrogate the claim – every family thinks itself the norm and we can’t penetrate their private lives to investigate how true it is – yet the family were probably ordinary in one sense. They were unremarkable. Just another white family. The alleged shooter’s parents were in traditional jobs. Mum a teacher. Dad a rubbish man.
The people who were closest to him – cousins, old school mates – pinpoint his OE to Europe as “the moment”. As RNZ reports in his manifesto the alleged shooter recounts his trip through North Korea and Pakistan, paying tribute to the locals’ kindness and hospitality (noticing the contradiction he explains he doesn’t hate the yellows and blacks who stay in their own “homelands”). Eventually he lands in Europe, road tripping France. In one passage he despairs that he can’t seem to find an all-white town or city. In another passage his travels take him, quite conveniently, to a cemetery for the European dead of the world wars. “I broke into tears, sobbing alone in the car,” he writes, mourning the apparent Islamification of Europe. “Why were we allowing these soldiers deaths to be in vain?”
He didn’t realise that the dead he mourned died trying to kill people like him.
In 2018 I wrote (presciently, without claiming too much credit for an insight this awful) that “white nationalism is, for the basement dwelling 4chaners, mouth breathing Redditors, and Youtube philosopher kings, nothing more than a desperate search for an alternative fatherland”. That search is what drove the alleged shooter from his Australian home. “The origin of my language is European, my culture is European, my political beliefs are European… most importantly, my blood is European”. To the alleged shooter his actual home was irredeemable. “What is an Australian but a drunk European?”
In each claim is a desperate narcissism, reaching for an imaginary identity when your existing accomplishments don’t match your personal ambitions. It’s tempting to extend that psychoanalysis. The alleged shooter’s fetish for imaginary “whites” is a cover for the trauma of being a nothing, disembodied. Or maybe the urge to order and rank the world into competing civilisations is a neurosis, like stacking your knives and forks in a row. Perhaps the pleasure he takes in trolling is jouissance, a momentary transgression in the service of briefly feeling. Yet those readings are weightless if they stand alone. The alleged shooter’s interior life is relevant, certainly so for a conviction on murder, but studying the actually existing politics that shaped his positions and actions seems more important than base speculation.
In The Invention of Tradition the historians Terence Ranger and Eric Hobsbawm argue that traditions, far from the ancient wisdoms of old, are often nothing more than recent beliefs that help foster a common identity when – to borrow from Said – “organic solidarities” like the family or village break down. The inventions are easy to spot in the courts and parliament where British ritual connects the two institutions to a pedigree and past that their move half away across the world broke. In the neo-fascist movement the inventions are slightly more subtle, taking actual historical happenings like the Crusades and pick-and-mixing the symbols (Knights Templar), battles (Acre 1189), and language (deus vult) that they can contort around the various anti-Muslim bigotries.
The idea that traditions are a kind of stand-in where old connections break down seems especially apt in settler colonies where the relationship to the past and a present community often amounts to nothing more than a shopping list of shared habits and references. Gumboots as culture. I appreciate that description could come across as banal, or even malicious, but it gets close to the impulses apparently guiding the alleged shooter: the search for meaningful political connections and political community. As he saw it Australia had no identity to offer. Instead he found his connection in an “imagined community” – in violent European nationalisms – and online.
“I am a racist”, the man writes in his manifesto. His neo-fascists comrades were too.

2

One of the first inspirations he cites is Luca Traini, a 28-year-old Italian neo-Nazi who, with a 9mm glock, went on a drive-by shooting injuring six African migrants in Macarata in 2018. The racist rampage lit a fuse under that year’s Italian general election. The left went after Matteo Salvini, the League Party leader, the same party in which Traini stood as a mayoral list candidate, for inspiring his violent work. In an ordinary election a political leader would make an immediate climb down, condemning Traini and his crimes. But Salvini, best known in the English-speaking world for closing harbours to refugees crossing the Med, was surprisingly consistent. He said the left had “blood on its hands” for packing the country with “illegal migrants”. The unspoken implication: Traini was doing his patriotic duty.
The alleged shooter, watching on from another hemisphere, found a brother in arms. The two men had built their identities around all the same hatreds and had clothed their boogeymen in all the same threads. One stitch for migrant “invaders”. Two stiches for liberals and Marxists, and a needle for the “race traitors” among them. But where the twin gunmen’s hatred really met, transforming from online big noting to a real-life passion, was in protecting “their” women. Traini undertook his crime as an apparent act of revenge against the three Nigerian refugees in court for killing 18-year-old Pamela Mastropietro.
In his manifesto the alleged shooter offers a similar provocation, taking 11-year-old Ebba Akerlund’s death as his red pill. In his self-mythologising, the Stockholm truck attack, a deadly terrorist attack that took Akerlund’s and four other lives, was his waking moment. “It was another terror attack in the seemingly never-ending attacks that had been occurring on a regular basis throughout my adult life,” he wrote. “But for some reason this was different”. What was that difference? Akerlund. An innocent. It’s a vile misuse – he doesn’t care for anyone or anything beyond himself – but the narrative demands an affect, the shooter turning in his coward’s rags for a knight’s armour.
For neo-fascists it’s essential to tell their origin stories through the opposite sex. For aspiring movement leaders like the alleged shooter it’s the fight to protect the “virtue” of “our women” against “Muslim rapists” that forces their hand. For lurkers, shitposters, and like-avores it’s the feminists and “Staceys” who never recognise the genius and vigour of their own race (plain meaning: “women don’t want me”) who lead them into fascism. Santa Barbara shooter Elliot Rodger, a martyr for beta males, undertook his crimes and suicide as an apparent act of “retribution” against women for denying him the sex and love he thought of as his by right.
This, not the customary declarations of love for the race, or even the thrill of sharing the same enemies, is usually the heart of online fascism – it’s a reaction against women.
In Male Fantasies the German sociologist Klaus Theweleit argues the fascist men who fought against the Weimar Republic from 1918 to 1933, and who went on to prominent positions and a political home in the Nazi regime, were in their heads and hearts afraid of women. For the “Freikorps” there were two womanly classes: White Women, “the nurses” representing order and servitude to men and country; and Red Women, “the communists” representing disorder, whoring, and the end of patriotic men. The latter were the women the paramilitary movement were under an obligation to kill. In one speech a general complains that when “a few old girls get blown up the whole world starts screaming about bloodthirsty soldiers”.
“As if women were always innocent,” he said.
This is why every fascist movement purges women first – metaphorically and actually. In Ruth Ben-Ghiat’s Italian Fascism’s Empire Cinema the American historian describes how films under the Duce’s regime “remove the Italian woman from the colonial space”, portraying the colonies as where men might find purpose through trans-national thuggery, and attacking women’s emancipation at home as a “corrupting” force and a check on the people’s success. The alleged shooter undertook his killings with similar illusions. That he could forge a new identity in gun fire and blood, and that liberated women (and Jews) were responsible for his personal and racial decline. In his manifesto the opening line is “it’s the birth rates”, repeated three times.
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THE WELLINGTON 15/3 VIGIL HELD AT THE BASIN RESERVE (PHOTO BY ELIAS RODRIGUEZ/GETTY IMAGES)
It’s easy to diagnose the same pathologies in his comrades. Game developers Zoë Quinn, Brianna Wu and media critic Anita Sarkeesian – the victims in 2014’s Gamergate troll – were made targets for harassment for no other reason than they were women crossing the border between a man’s stuff (the spacies) and a woman’s role (sex and housework). In New Zealand the death threats against Golriz Ghahraman, our first MP who arrived in New Zealand as a refugee, are so frequent Parliamentary Services ensures special protection for the Green MP. The critics go after Ghahraman for everything from fakery (her “CV” is a lie, she isn’t a “real refugee”) to acting as part of a globalist conspiracy to wipe out the white race. It’s impressively stupid, of course, but the point isn’t the truth in the charges. It’s that an Iranian-born woman sits in our parliament.
The same trolls go for the prime minister on Twitter’s #TurnArdern hashtag too, condemning Jacinda as a lazy woman (#parttimePM) who coasts along on nothing more than her femininity (“she’s a pretty communist”). That’s hardly out of the ordinary, of course. In the 2000s print commentators were comfortable enough to throw equally chauvinist slurs at Helen Clark, using “Helengrad” for Clark as the controlling woman and “political dominatrix” for ball-breaking the men around her. The difference is today’s trolls serve their sexism with Islamophobia on top. Last year activist Rangi Kemara found a telling correlation between tweeters of Turn Ardern and tweeters of Islamophobia. The Christchurch man selling MAGA hats – “Make Ardern Go Away” – on TradeMe once wrote he would destroy “mosque after mosque till I am taken out”.
Give me the misogynist, to corrupt an old saying, and I’ll show you the Islamophobe.
Simone Weil, the French philosopher, would recognise in the turn to Europe – and the turn against women – a classic “uprooting”. In almost every country material comfort and security often rely on cutting the cord between a person, the past, and a present community: removing Indigenous people from their land; separating citizens from their homes and families in one place for work in another; and reducing people to their supposedly “innate” categories (race, gender, etc). These uprootings, in Weil’s words, are a “sickness of the soul” that leave men especially vulnerable to demagoguery. In their search for past and present connections they turn to “false conceptions” like patriotism and national greatness, and at the core of each in 2020: hatred for and fear of women.

3

What’s notable about this neo-fascist movement isn’t necessarily its reach but its mode. Online, yes, but more importantly: politically free. Other than finance, the alleged shooter had no political or bureaucratic restraints. He could post all the tell-tale things he apparently did, and it seemed neither the police nor the spy agencies would ever flag it. He could acquire the semi-automatic weapon the Crown charge him with using with nothing more than a gun licence – and the seller was under no obligation to log the purchase. And he could move between Australia and New Zealand’s practically open borders with only a passport and a straight face for the eGate.
I hope you register the irony in this. Borders were the very thing the alleged shooter was desperate to enforce against the Muslim hordes. After moving to New Zealand, ostensibly to plan an attack back home, the 28-year-old found instead that “the invaders were in all of our lands”. Even at the bottom of the world in formerly lily-white Christchurch. “Nowhere was safe”, he wrote. The alleged shooter, in a bonfire of pomposity and self-regard, actually did think himself at the centre of a civilisational struggle between the out-bred West and Islam. In the mind of the manifesto writer, massacring Muslims would enforce the borders the supposed sell outs in government wouldn’t.
But in allegedly killing the innocent people he did he wasn’t taking on a powerful soon-to-be majority. Rather, on one side is the 28-year-old with all his political and social freedoms, and on the other are the shooting’s victims who were living their lives under significant political and social restraints. The spy agencies were dedicating their resources to “Islamic terrorism”, not the alleged shooter’s terrorism. Police commit more resources to “street gangs” – that is, Māori – and barely even bother with the alleged shooter’s brothers and sisters in white power. The immigration department, as any anecdote can confirm, focuses disproportionate attention on non-white entries, and the only people who move freely between borders are people like the 28-year-old.
In short: non-white people live their lives under scrutiny and surveillance.
The government’s official response to the Christchurch shooting is to extend that scrutiny and surveillance to, well, white people. Jacinda Ardern is leading reforms to gun laws and the rules governing how online users share violent, racist, and other objectionable material. Last month the country’s top spies told a parliamentary select committee that they’re keeping watch on dozens of suspect characters. Police, even a year on, are still making home visits to destroy illegal weapons and otherwise interview lurkers and posters. The changes, taken together, rightly remove the freedom and options the alleged shooter had, and make it almost impossible for his comrades to organise.
Yet as good and necessary as those changes are some of the structural conditions that produce the racial distinctions the alleged shooter holds so dear are left intact.
In organised debating one of the famous moots is the “balloon debate”. In it each speaker, usually arguing on behalf of someone famous, proposes why the others shouldn’t toss him or her over the side of a hot air balloon in order to save the others. It’s a riveting hypothetical, placing six people in disaster’s mouth and exercising the collective choice to doom one and rescue the others. But for anyone who understands how it feels to have their apparent merits and demerits subject to “debate”, with someone else drawing up a balance sheet in red and black, it’s horrendous. The idea is we’re born equal, but after that all bets are off. This is what women, takatāpui, Māori, Muslims, and other deviations from the “norm” deal with most days.
Are we worthy?
It’s the same principle that organises immigration to New Zealand: who’s worthy? In our system the government literally attaches “points” to the world’s hopeful according to their potential for improving the lives of the hosts. Good English? Points. A tertiary qualification? Add to the tally. Assets? You’re basically in. The system’s political champions admire this approach for its rationality. Unlike the US where immigration sometimes relies on a lottery – eg the American Diversity Immigrant Visa – or just keen racism – i.e. the Muslim travel ban – New Zealand immigration is hassle-free and non-discriminatory.
It’s a self-serving argument, of course, because an immigration system where the purpose and function is defining inclusions and exclusions (who’s in and who’s out) is never neutral. When Winston Peters calls for tighter English language requirements, for example, that’s really an argument for conferring an advantage on applicants from the Anglosphere over people with equivalent skills or greater need from other parts of the world. This isn’t explicitly discriminatory, at least in the sense the exclusionary threshold doesn’t depend on a person’s race, but the impact is racist in that one group of people (mostly white) enjoy an advantage over another group (mostly non-white) thanks to nothing more than the great good fortune of being born an English speaker.
It’s a perversity. Yet this is what border systems, including our points system, do: they force you to think about inners and outers. The threshold between the worthy and the unworthy. This is one reason the refugee-led campaign to end the “family link policy” was so important. In removing the rule barring African and Middle Eastern refugees from settling in New Zealand (unless their family were already here) the campaigners saw to one of the worst racial exclusions our border system made. If you’re an optimist you might hope the other racist exclusions in our border laws – like The Citizenship (Western Samoa) Act, the legislation stripping Samoans of their Privy Council-confirmed New Zealand citizenship – are but a campaign away from abolition.
I’m a pessimist.
I suspect most people imagine borders as objects, a line in the ground demarcating our country from theirs. Yet the American southern border, as one example, is notable more for “the Wall’s” absence than its presence. The northern border is even less dramatic, a largely wide-open space with fences here and there to pen in the farm animals. In New Zealand airlines usually enforce the country’s borders thousands of kilometres from our actual line on the map. Under the Advance Passenger Screening programme carriers only board passengers with the appropriate documentation.
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A POLICE OFFICER DEMONSTRATES ILLEGAL GUN MODIFICATIONS. (PHOTO: RNZ / ANA TOVEY)
It’s another marvellous technocratic achievement, appointing airline staff as de facto border patrol agents. But like the points system the screening programme’s impacts can end up perverse and racial making it almost impossible for refugees and asylum seekers from “non-visa waiver countries” (i.e. the developing world) from ever making it far enough to lodge a claim for protection in New Zealand. The programme, more than anything else, exposes borders for what they really are – a list of biased inclusions and exclusions – and the structural violence borders perform are in whom they include (the English-speaking, the educated, the wealthy) and who they exclude (the desperate, the poor, the mostly brown and black).
The alleged shooter and the neo-fascist movement understand a struggle is happening over the nature and function of borders. This man recognised new borders – the “balkanisation of the US” – as the only way to guarantee “the future of the White race on the North American continent”. His comrades, like the neo-Nazi who went on a stabbing riot on a train in Oregon, claim their end goal is smashing the US into competing ethno-states. For them – and their king in President Trump – reconfiguring the borders, whether as policy changes to the inclusions and exclusions or new border lines entirely, is the best way to guarantee their political supremacy this century.
Are borders by their very nature racist?

4

I took my last trip to Christchurch a month and a half after March 15. I had a speaking engagement with Network Waitangi Otautahi, the local tauiwi Treaty group. I thought about putting it off. Post-March 15 the only conversations that seem urgent and necessary are about March 15. Taking up space felt wrong, and even stepping off the plane felt intrusive. The city was grieving. Even the affect was off. People were unusually quiet in public spaces. In private one person I spoke to was literally in tears. We weren’t talking about March 15 at all but she was thinking about it every day. Even that felt like I was taking up space. Am I here to grieve too? I thought about Sam Neill breaking down in a taxi when the news broke, openly weeping, and how he took comfort from his Muslim driver.
Hmmm.
I spoke, in the end. Not entirely comfortably, but an intervention of one kind or another felt right after the racism debate went from “individual hate” to “firearms access” to “the internet”. Each is its own valid connection, sure, but it felt as if all the most important connections were missing. In the English-speaking world it’s fashionable to name private, individual acts as “racist”. The intolerant, unfair, or simply racial things that fall out of people’s mouths. Like “cheeky darkies” on the 7pm telly. But it’s unfashionable, of course, to name racist systems. Instead bureaucrats and opinion-makers opt for euphemisms like “unconscious bias”, reducing racism to a state of mind and not a systemic design.
This is why I thought it important to issue a reminder, in the very small way that I could: racism is a social relation. It’s the principle governing the relationship between coloniser – the people who took this land and built the institutions to control and profit from it – and colonised, the people from whom the land was taken and the institutions built to protect and exploit the founding theft. The same principle shapes the relationship between citizens – people who enjoy all the rights the state confers – and non-citizens, outsiders who must prove their worth through their contribution to citizens.
📷
These are the systemic conditions that produce racism – unequal power relations – and it’s what makes it so easy to condemn the Māoris or the immigrants or whoever else. When one people are up and the other are down, and the scales are apparently resistant to any remedial attempts to balance them with Treaty settlements or an increase in the refugee and asylum seeker quota, it makes it seem as if their disadvantage is a state of nature and not a centuries-long project to exclude certain people from prosperity. To the alleged shooter his victims were by their very nature irredeemable, abusing the West’s generosity, and he understood himself as enacting the same permanent exclusions his ancestors made, from the Crusades to the war on terror.
In this sense, the alleged shooter was an individual racist. Of course he was. But in another sense he was taking our exclusionary systems to their logical end.
Is there any response to savagery like this? The government’s reforms are one. I entirely support them. And yet they fall so short. People will still define their identity in different nationalisms, just like the alleged shooter did, so long as there are racist border system to enforce them. Neo-fascists will still define their identities against women as long as there is an unequal “domestic sphere”, an unequal workplace, and a society where one group – men – accumulate and exercise disproportionate power over another – women, trans people, non-binary people. That makes the struggle against the alleged shooter’s politics longer than his trial, his probable conviction, and his probable imprisonment. It’s a generations-long struggle to destroy all the exclusions that make up our society and produce the conditions we know as racism.
On my read Simone Weil’s original, vital insight is that as people and communities we find our identities in the obligations we owe – and in the obligations owed to us. In those reciprocal relationships we find meaning and purpose. In the give and take, in its delights and frustrations, and in the everyday work of making a home in these islands. This is where we find our roots, connecting to each other in different ways – whether as Māori or women or Muslims – but never excluding. “They are us” is an inclusion. They are us is an affirmation. They are us is also an urgent and uncomfortable call to action. As New Zealanders, it’s our responsibility to take on every exclusionary system, whether it’s racist borders or enduring gender roles. The memory of those who lost their lives on March 15 demands no less."
submitted by lolpolice88 to Maori [link] [comments]

Master List Of Left-Wing Youtube AND Podcast Channels - REVISED

Master List Of Left-Wing Youtube AND Podcast Channels

***NOTE: after a discussion with the mods I’ve taken out the original note here. Suffice to say the reason I put together this revised list was to add a number of channels I felt had been unfairly excluded. I’ve taken out a few controversial channels to comply with the mods request that i do so, as well as link to OP at his request. I thank the mods for allowing me to keep the rest of the channels I’ve added to the list.
Newly Added channels not on OP:
Tovarich Endymion, BrendanMccooney, Red Star Video, Claudia Brown, SJW101, azureScapegoat, Benji Adam Wiskettes, DemocraticSocialist01, Comrade Hakim, FinnishBolshevik, Bat’ko The Manarchist, ProSocialism, Flea Market Socialist, KnowingBetter, and a few others!
As a socialist I don't believe masterlists should constitute any kind of intellectual property that should be protected, especially in context of a masterlist that is being shared to spread awareness of leftist channels shared with the leftist community. I believe the channels I added deserve recognition. I don’t mind sharing editing with the community — let me know what you’d like to add and I’ll try my best to accommodate within the word limit here. I’ve had to take out a few of the film related channels to make room for more directly politically related podcasts.
I included the Podcast section in post and just removed the NEWS section of the original post, so that can be found in the OP (link in title). Also please note that to accommodate more podcasts and other more directly related leftist channels, I’ve had to remove some more film focused channels. Those can be found on the OP. Thanks comrades.
---------- please give these channels as much help as you can by subscribing and watching their content. We need these things to expand as much as possible if we don't want to entirely lose YouTube to the far-right.

ContraPoints: Explains political and social justice issues in funny and accessible way, utilising atmospheric lighting, lavish sets and costumes and memorable characters to illustrate her points.
Recommended video: Does The Left Hate Free Speech?

Hbomberguy: Debunks and mocks the views of right-wing YouTube commentators. Combines silly sketch comedy with well-researched critiques. Also reviews media like TV and video games.
Recommended video: Soy Boys: A Measured Response

Shaun: Creates longform, extremely thorough and straightforward rebuttals of right-wing videos. His content is also very researched and relies on some very sly, dry humour. Has also begun making videos explaining left-wing positions on issues such as 'How Privatisation Fails: Railways'.
Recommended video: The Great Replacement Isn't Real ft. Lauren Southern

Innuendo Studios: Brought to my attention through the comments here. Has done some very interesting series of videos including 'Why Are You So Angry?', which analysed the mindset of the young men behind Gamergate.
Recommended videos: The Alt-Right Playbook: Introduction

Peter Coffin: Creates deep dives from a socialist perspective into topical political and social issues. Also does regular livestreams on these subjects with his wife Ashleigh.
Recommended video: What Jordan B. Peterson Is Doing

Philosophy Tube: Analyses current affairs through a philosophical lens and creates explainers on well-known and important moral and political philosophers and philosophical concepts.
Recommended video: The Philosophy of Antifa

Potholer54: A journalist and former geologist debunks climate change denial and other science myths ranging from that of right-wing YouTubers like Steven Crowder and Stefan Molyneux to major denier figures like Lord Christopher Monkton and Patrick Moore. Makes an enormous point of referencing scientific papers and consensus on these issues, but addresses these subjects in a very easy to understand way. Perhaps my favourite of all the YouTubers on this list.
Recomended video: Top 10 climate change myths
Three Arrows: Debunks inaccurate takes on history by the right wing. Uses a similar longform format to Shaun's videos, and is also very well-sourced with some of the mods of the Ask Historians subreddit acting as researchers.
Recommended video: Guns in the Third Reich - A Response to Ben Shapiro And Others

Anactualjoke: Refutes poor understandings and misrepresentations of Marxism from YouTubers like Sargon of Akkad and PragerU while defending socially liberal ideas like intersectionality.
Recommended video: The Youtube Red Scare: Episode 1 - Does Sargon Understand the left?

Benji Adam Whiskettes: Excellent marxist channel featuring videos on how Communism has improved womens rights, why the profit motive is not good, wealth gaps, and how capitalism has not created jobs. Noteworthy for video of Professor G.A. Cohen debunking the myth of incentive under capitalism
Recommended video: G.A. Cohen debunks the myth of incentive under Capitalism

Red Star Video: Featuring marxist film reviews, analysis of the origin of the alt right, reaction videos on political charts, history of the second international, cuban socialism, and an overview of different tendencies, Red Star is an overall great marxist channel. Noteworthy for video “Why The RIght Is Wrong On Free Speech” Recommended Video: Why The Right Is Wrong On “Free Speech”
Claudia Brown: Feminist and socialist channel featuring a variety of videos on a wide variety of subjects. Everything from Islam and Feminism to response videos, to women’s participation in the workplace, to examinations of the use of buzzwords. Noteworthy for unique perspectives on feminism and capitalism.
Recommended Video: Capitalism DOESNT enhance innovation
SJW 101 The Political Gamer: A channel that does effective leftist critique on a variety of issues, including on anti-feminism, the youtube right, the “skeptic” movement, Milo, Laci Green with wry wit and careful analysis.
Recommended video: Sargon, collectivism and the Skeptic Community
Brendan Mccooney: Hands down the most comprehensive channel on Marxian Economics. Covers topics like the law of value, overdeterminism, etc. in depth with well edited videos featuring videos, graphics. An absolute must for understanding economics, not too dry either.
Recommended Video: Law Of Value: Introduction
DemocraticSocialist01: With well edited, carefully argued videos on Hayek, Pinochet, Mao, Capitalisms Death Toll, Coach Red Pill, Brazil and Venezuela, this channel is excellent in debunking a lot of bad reactionary arguments while teaching quite a lot.
Recommended Video: Mao Did More Good Than Harm (Note: This video is mirrored, the video was taken down from his channel for some reason).
BadMouseProductions: Similarly primarily debunks bad understands of socialism from the right, but also does videos explaining socialist concepts and debunking bad right wing takes on other topics like climate change.
Recommended video: Argument ad Venezuelum (debunks the idea that Venezuela is a socialist country)
C0nc0rdance: Only uploads infrequently, but does very educated videos explaining scientific concepts such as gender and the genetics of ethnicity from a left-wing perspective. Also does videos addressing social topics from this same political viewpoint.
Recommended video: The Science of Human Races, Part 1
CreationistCat: The Mr. Plinkett of the YouTube Left. Using absurdist humour, bizarre editing and yet surprisingly great insight and research, the character of Creationist Cat (a magical housecat who was 'zapped through da internet' by God) mocks and exposes the bullshit of the right wing and online skeptic community.
Recommended video: MILO YIANNOPOULOS: EXPOSED!
Comrade Hakim: Noteworthy for a variety of videos discussing everything from the problem with worker co-ops, healthcare, how socialism gives a better quality of life, and one must watch video in particular on the subject of capitalism lifting people out of poverty. As an addendum to that video, I also recommend the Guardian Article “Aid In Reverse: How poor countries develop rich ones”
Recommended Video: Capitalism HASNT Lifted People Out Of Poverty
Cuck Philosophy: Explains topics in moral and political philosophy, does Marxist analyses of popular culture, but has perhaps best contributed to left-wing YouTube by doing long, in-depth deconstructions of the way figures like Jordan Peterson, Sam Harris and Steven Hicks misunderstand philosophy.
Recommended video: A Critique of Sam Harris' 'The Moral Landscape'
EssenceOfThought: Left-wing atheist channel that goes against what has become typically expected from the 'skeptic' community and actually critiques not only arguments from religious apologists, but also those who argue against non-binary gender, trans identities and other LGBT rights.
Recommended video: Jordan Peterson Lies About The Science On Same Gender Parenting
For Harriet: An intersectional black feminist channel which, aside from responding to current events pertaining to women's rights, takes a fairly uncompromising look at the perceived flaws in the movement to effectively analyse how it can be made better.
Recommended video: Candace Owens Is A Bad Actor
Tovarisch Endymion: An overall excellent marxist channel featuring videos on topics about Capitalism, how socialism HAS worked, replies to prager U and other reactionary channels, as well as a number of explainer videos. Noteworthy for video on an analysis of countries with deregulated market economies which feature atrocious wealth gaps.
Recommended Video: A Look at the Freest Markets In The World

Libertarian Socialist Rants: An anarchist who debunks bad capitalist arguments and anti-social liberalism views. Also does videos explaining anarchist principles and refuting common critiques of this ideology.
Recommended video: Anarchist Commentaries Episode 6: Paul Joseph Watson and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

RichardDWolff: The channel of well-known Marxist economist Prof. Richard D. Wolff. This channel is home to exclusive lectures where Professor Wolff explains current American and global economic problems and how Marxian economics can be both a prism to analyse how these problems effect people, and also be a solution to these systemic economic flaws. The channel Democracy At Work(which actually currently sits at 60k subscribers) features other lectures on the same subjects regarding contemporary failures of capitalism, and is based on a book of Wolff's with the same name.
Recommended video: Crisis and Openings: Introduction to Marxism - Richard D Wolff

The Messianic Manic: Another left-wing atheist channel. Does short but clever videos rebutting bad arguments from religious apologists and social conservatives.
Recommended video: Ben Shapiro Is Wrong About: Raising Children

Zero Books: A promotional channel for the Marxist literary publishing imprint of the same name. Uses the books available from their line as a starting point for videos exploring concepts in political and social philosophy and interpreting current political events and figures through a Marxist lens.
Recommended video: The Intellectual Dark Web Is Afraid Of Marx


AngieSpeaks: Produces anarchist critiques of current political events and explorations of anarchist/socialist history.
Recommended video: Conspiracy Culture: A Leftist Analysis

BlackGoat 666: Debunks online right-wing heroes like Ben Shapiro, Jordan Peterson and Christina Hoff-Sommers.
Recommended video: Jordan Peterson Is A Fraud. Part 1: Bill C-16

Eric Taxxon: Known for doing Hbomberguy's music, but between original music videos does left-wing response videos to people like Paul Joseph Watson.
Recommended video: The Kunst Saga | How The Right Wing Views Modern Art

In Otter Words: Hasn't uploaded in a year but hopefully will again soon since his output has been very underrated. Debunks bad right-wing criticisms of feminism and the trans rights movement. I'm shocked no bigger YouTubers have seized on his discovery that Ben Shapiro has been lying about the trans suicide rate.
Recommended video: Ben Shapiro and the Transgender Suicide Rate

José: Very similar to the style of Potholer54, but addressing similar subjects to channels like those like Hbomb, Shaun and Contra. He debunks right-wingers like Dave Rubin, Steven Crowder and Roaming Millennial with very eloquent, long-form responses.
Recommended video: Steven Crowder Is A Fraud | Change My Mind

Kristi Winters: Feminist social scientist famous for pummelling Sargon of Akkad when they debated. Does discussion livestreams addressing events and arguments of the anti-feminist 'Skeptic' community.
Recommended video: Reasonable Questions For Anti-SJWS and Formal Debate: Sargon of Akkad vs Kristi Winters

Maria the Witch: Covers feminist and LGBT topics. Similarly to Contra (whom she has recently done a video criticising) Maria often rebuts anti-SJW points against socially progressive ideals, having done videos addressing fat shaming, the placement of asexuality on the LGBT spectrum, and the commodification of female beauty.
Recommended video: Roaming Millennial: Hates Women. Hates Facts.

Messy Elliott: Has done rebuttals to Dave Rubin and InfoWars as well as a video defending non-binary gender from the uneducated criticism of major YouTubers (see below).
Recommended video: YouTubers Don't Understand: Non-Binary People | Messy Elliott

Mexie: Creates very polished socialist critiques and explorations of economic topics
Recommended video: Why People Who Need Redistribution Hate It: The Free Market & You

Mia Mulder: Self-proclaimed ‘angry trans woman’. Addresses political topics such as the Syria conflict, debating with white supremacists and the relationship of left-wing ideology with trans women in an entertaining way.
Recommended video: Syria: Many Of These Options Are Bad

Never Speak In Absolutes: Creates videos that draw on a knowledge of philosophy to critique members of the Intellectual Dark Web like Jordan Peterson and Sam Harris, as well as addressing other big issues like peak oil. Occasionally livestreams with Douglas Lain of Zero Books.
Recommended video: What Jordan Peterson Gets Wrong About Marx, Postmodernism and The Left.

NonCompete: The channel's description sums it up best, "Non-Compete is a leftist blog and video series dedicates to the principles of intersectionalist liberation, anarchism, communism, and puppet shows." Does videos similar to the style of Peter Coffin addressing specific leftist issues alongside a podcast with other leftists mentioned on this list like AngieSpeaks and RadicalReviewer.
Recommended video: The Red Pill is a CULT

PoliDice: Creates ‘debunking’ videos similar to the Potholer54 format José uses, and addressing similar topics. He’s done videos responding to Matt Christiansen, Steven Crowder, Ben Shapiro and PragerU.
Recommended video: Ten Horrible Ben Shapiro Arguments Debunked

Radical Reviewer: Previously focused on reviewing leftist books and other media, but as of about a day ago has branched out into response videos to right-wing lunatics.
Recommended video: Stefan Molyneux Doesn't Understand Anarchism

Rational Disconnect: Creates very Hbomberguy-esque videos responding to shitty arguments and videos from the skeptic community and alt-right. Like Hbomb he talks to the camera and includes performative comedy bits.
Recommended video: South Africa & The Far Right | PART 1 (placed in limited state by YouTube because the alt-right reported it for the clips from other people he includes who themselves were not flagged)

KnowingBetter: Debunking channel featuring videos exposing Gandhi, defending Christopher Columbus, and going after the likes of Winston Churchill. “Now you know better”
Recommended Video: Going After Gandhi: A Perverted Purity
Sarcasmitron: Another ‘debunker’ in the Potholer format. Has responded to Paul Joseph Watson, Ben Shapiro, No Bullshit and Stefan Molyneux in between video game and politics related shitposts.
Recommended video: The Truth About Paul Joseph Watson (For Real)
Thom Avella: Similar to hbomberguy's style but more vlog-based. Rebuts right-wing videos but also has a series called 'Buzzwords from the Right' where he specifically debunks misused terms and slurs used by that side like to chastise us.
Recommended video: What "Questions for SJWs" Taught Me About YouTube Antifeminism

Thought Slime: Anarchist who explains the tenents of his ideology and occasionally responds to right-wing dipshits.
Recommended video: We don't talk about She-Ra (sorry to have two She-Ra related videos in a row, but this truly is my favourite thing this guy’s done)
Xexizy: Marxist who both promotes socialist ideology and critiques those who misrepresent and slander it such as PragerU, Ben Shapiro and Jordan Peterson.
Recommended video: Different Kinds of Marxism Explained
Bat’ko The Manarchist: Bat’ko is a leftist prominent on leftypol. He makes hilarious and clever songs about IDPOL and Stalin using classic Russian choir songs
Recommended Video: Best Of Leftypol Choir
[Nyx:](www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd_YNMEZndA) She covers movies/films, often utilizes a leftist frame, and sometimes dives into topics related to being trans.
azureScapegoat: Marxist who promotes socialist ideology; one of the most prominent features of this channel is an explainer series of videos on Cuba’s economic and political system. Noteworthy also for a video where he carefully clarifies the distinctions between socialism, communism, and modern communism.
Recommended video: How Democracy Works In Cuba

YUGOPNIK: Very new anti-capitalist channel. Critiques capitalist arguments ('Capitalist Philanthropy and Charity, why it doesn't work'), defends criticism of the left (Re: PragerUniversity on LEFTISTS and TOLERANCE) and promotes a Marxist praxis through everyday needs (see below).
Recommended video: Why Gamers Should be against Capitalism

Flea Market Socialist: Creates long and short videos on how to survive capitalism, make propaganda fun, subvert the system, and gives us that pure pure crystalline ideology we so desperately desire; straight to the jugular.
Recommended Video:Surviving Capitalism
ProSocialism: Small Trotskyist channel with videos on the bolsheviks, Lenin, and the Russian Revolution.
Recommended Video: The Russian Revolution Of 1905
Aphreditto:A leftist channel devoted to anarchist and anti-capitalist alternative education that pairs EDM with lectures and audiobooks by historical and contemporary thinkers.
[Recommended Video:]Murray Bookchin (1975) "The New Harmony" - Liquid Drum & Bass Mix
Anarchopac:: A philosophy channel that discusses Anarchism, Feminism, and Marxism.
Recommended Video: Ben Shapiro doesn’t understand intersectionality
- Media essayists and critics:

Big Joel: Does video essays on film, TV and video games with a very political slant. Analysing the Christian propaganda of the God’s Not Dead series, the preachy style of 1950s propaganda shorts, and what he believed to be the shallow politics of Black Mirror (as well as other less political analyses of movies like The Room and Disney films). He has recently branched out into much more overtly political content, creating videos which refuted arguments in Cassie Jaye’s men’s rights film ‘The Red Pill’ and the videos of Prager University.
Recommended video: The Red Pill: The Strange Art of Men's Rights Activism (Part 1)
donoteat01: Brought to my attention through comments. A fascinating channel using the game Cities: Skylines to illustrate the socioeconomic impacts the urban planning of cities can have on people's lives, both through the development in cities in history and in their redevelopment today. If you're interested in class analysis this series will be perfect for you.
Recommended video: Cities: Skylines | Power, Politics, & Planning: Episode 3: Gentrification

Folding Ideas: While not too overtly political, a leftist sense of justice and morality is pervasive in all Dan Olson’s work on this channel. He creates very lengthy analyses of movies and cultural events like last year’s weird YouTube kids video algorithm. Perhaps his most politically potent work though is the video I’ll link down below.
Recommended video: Triumph of the Will and the Cinematic Language of Propaganda

Kyle Kallgren: Film critic specialising in art cinema, but always from a socially left-wing perspective. While this political aspect is clear in all his reviews, often he does do videos exploring politics a lot more overtly such as below.
Recommended video: From Caligari to Hitler: Imagining the Tyrant - Between the Lines
Lindsay Ellis: Like Olson and Kallgren, Ellis started back in the day on That Guy With The Glasses, but has since transcended that prison into a phenomenal film critic. She uses dry humour and widely recognisable pop culture (her favourite subjects being Disney and Transformers) to look at intersecting social and political trends. While she’s often spoken from a feminist perspective, her recent work has begun delving into Marxist analysis in a way she’s very accessibly explained to the wide audience who watch her.
Recommended video: Marxism! | The Whole Plate Episode 9
Jack Saint / LackingSaint: Formerly did animations, now does video essays with political themes like in the link below. Also interesting is his parody of anti-SJW film reviews 'Rational Big Boy DEMOLISHES SJW Propaganda: 12 Angry Men'.
Recommended video: Sky High: Disney's Fascist Eugenics Movie
Pop Culture Detective: Despite the current cultural backlash to social justice, this guy has somehow gotten away with making video essay after video essay with millions of views criticising the portrayal of toxic masculinity in film and television, while celebrating the non-normative gender archetypes in media like Steven Universe.
Recommended video: The Adorkable Misogyny of The Big Bang Theory
Renegade Cut: Another long-form video essayist, but has a particular emphasis on analysing social justice in film. His work includes critical readings of the white privilege themes of ‘Get Out’, the perhaps accidental Ayn Randian/Objectivist themes of ‘The Incredibles’, and as seen below, the contentious approach to racism of ‘Three BillBoards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’.
Recommended video: How (Not) to Discuss Racism in Film - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Renegade Cut

Step Back History: A history channel exploring important events from a progressive perspective. Has done videos addressing topics the right tends to obscure or ignore the truth of like, the pre-Columbian Americans (see below), 20th century communism, the rise of ISIS, anarchism during the Spanish Civil War and many others.
Recommended video: The Truth About Native Americans before Europeans Arrived
PODCASTS (Find On Podcast App)
Chapo Trap House: Leftist comedy podcast featuring interviews with a wide variety of writers and other prominent leftist figures. Along with film reviews, they also read and make fun of right wing and liberal media figures. They are very popular and do tours. Look up their clips on YouTube and obviously check this one out.
The Michael Brooks Show: Michael Brooks of the majority report’s show which features guests, analysis of politics and culture from a socialist perspective. Entertaining, funny, and overall wonderful podcast.
Best Of The Left: Aggregation of clips from a variety of mostly progressive and socialist radio and other leftist sources covering one important topic each episode.
The Majority Report: Mentioned in the youtube list, this is the actual podcast that the youtube clips come from. I listen every day. Simply excellent. This one I consider a must listen.
The Other Washington: Policy analysis from a progressive perspective. Noteworthy for analysis of minimum wage arguments.
Antifada: Jamie Peck of the Majority Reports podcast. Socialist with interviews and discussion of a variety of intriguing subject matter.
Jacobin Radio: Podcast of Jacobin Magazine -- analysis and discussion of issues from a socialist perspective
Current Affairs: Mentioned in the youtube list; the podcast features unique discussion of a variety of relevant policy and other topics from the magazine editors relevant to the socialist left
News From Nowhere: Corey Pein’s (Live, Work Work Work Die Author) unique podcast from a socialist perspective.
The Breunigs: Matt And Elizabeth Breunig of the Peoples Policy Project carefully and holistically analyze and discuss a diverse range of economic and policy issues.
This Is Hell!: Socialist analysis and interviews on a wide variety of topics relevant to the socialist left.
Zero Books: Mentioned in the youtube list; this is the podcast.
Dissent Magazine: Podcast of the Magazine
Citations Needed: Carefully policy and discussion of a variety of issues from a socialist perspective.
Intercepted: podcast of intercept magazine hosted by the brilliant and highly well regarded Jeremy Scahill, author of Blackwater and dirty wars.
Pod Damn America: the anti liberal pod save America. Features interviews with dsa members, organizers and other leftist activists and workers.
Vegan Vanguard (Mexie) Mexies youtube channel is charming, with well researched leftist subject matter and effective, well communicated presentation. Her podcast follows this trend.
Dead Pundits Society: severely underrated podcast featuring interviews with leftists as diverse and important as Adolph reed jr (the anti Tahnahisi Coates (materialist over idealist analysis), economics, unions, and a socialist foreign policy.
Supreme Leap Forward, Mic Dicta, (Socialist legal analysis)
Revolutionary Left Radio: Great pod from an ML on a variety of topics with lots of guests; did a great cross-over with The Antifada which would serve as a great introduction if you already listen to them
Media Roots: hosted by Abby Martin and her brother. This is Media Roots self described website description: "Media Roots is a citizen journalism project that reports the news from outside of party lines while providing a collaborative forum for conscious citizens, artists and activists to unite."
The Guillotine: hosted by Brett from Rev Left Radio and Dr. Bones, it is a self-described "podcast covering global current events from a revolutionary communist and anarchist perspective."
Street Fight: based out of Ohio, Street Fight Radio, or Street Fight is an American politics and humor radio show and podcast founded in June 2011 and hosted by Brett Payne and Bryan Quinby with anarchist leanings. Gritty and down to earth
Congressional Dish: podcast which is basically one woman going on a deep dive on recently passed bills, Senate hearings, that kind of thing. Lots of good episodes about US imperialism. Very detail focussed.
Cumtown: baconshark316: “not like really leftist but they're good friends with Chapo and guest on each other podcast before. Cumtown is comedy but their politics are pretty left. They just don't talk politics as much as Chapo.” very “dirtbag left”
Ashes, Ashes: David Torcivia and Daniel Forkner discuss systemic issues, cracks in civilization, collapse of the environment, and the end of the world."
Criminal (In)justice: as you can guess from the name, this podcast focuses on injustice in the criminal justice system... a lot of the critiques are quite leftist.
Your Kickstarter Sucks: a unique podcast with a humorous leftist analysis of a wide range of topics as diverse as gun violence apps, bus people, and cultural topics. I’ve heard it’s funny, still gotta get around to it
Season of the Bitch: Very well-informed feminist/Marxist show
Economic Update.: The podcast version of Richard Wolff's weekly show found on Democracy @ Work's YT channel
The Dig: Podcast from Jacobin Magazine
Deconstructed: Another pod from The Intercept
Eyes Left: Anti-war pod from two lefty army vets
The Bernie Sanders Show: Bernie will occasionally drop a half-hour commentary on big headlines
Working Class History: Exactly what it says on the box
Even More News: From the "Some More News" YT channel team
Socialist Rifle Association: A leftist podcast commenting on recent news, with focus on guns and gun laws, commenting on a variety of topics including new legislation, minorities and police. Also they regularly bash Musk, with is always fun. And they are official podcast of SRA, but that's obvious.
The Magnificast: A Christian, Marxist podcast
Chuck Boonta Vista Socialist Club:”It's the Australian rip off of Chapo Trap House”
Neighbor Science: Post-Scarcity Anarchism authors and profit sector business executives Pieter de Beer and Ryan Salisbury focused on political economy, ecology, and billionaires
Radio War Nerd: Excellent leftist foreign policy analysis
Novara Media: Aaron Bastani and Ash Sankar (of “I’m literally a communist”) have an excellent podcast AND YouTube channel featuring videos on subjects as diverse as islamophobia/Sam Harris, Homo-Nationalism and British Politics. Highly recommended
Media democracy pod: like the uk version of citations needed. very good analysis of the media by tom mills & dan hind, who have both written books on the subject for verso. also putting forward pretty concrete plans to democratise the media over here.
Discourse Collective:: leftist podcast analyzing culture and current events from a left perspective with various guests from the left activist and media sphere, as well as an ongoing reading series of of the works of important leftist authors (Prohoun, Kropotkin, Bakunin, etc).
The Black Podcast:
Red Scare: socialist feminist takes on current events and patriarchal norms, with film analysis as well
Swampside chats: the topics can be pretty niche ("here's this left-wing party that split in 1976," "here's this ultra-reactionary who wrote a manifesto") but it pulls off a combination of entertaining and intellectually serious that's p rare IME.
Behind the News: more current-events-driven and less entertaining, but is still probably one of the best Serious Interview shows out there.
No Cartridge Audio: leftist critiques of video games through a literary lens. They hosted the Texas-Christman Video Game Debate.
Struggle Session: reviews a lot of nerd/pop culture media, and often features very insightful views into the world of entertainment industry labor issues. One of their hosts, Leslie Lee, has been on Chapo.
District Sentinel: a podcast co-op (based in DC so you don’t have to be) on daily news, haikus, and analysis from the left.
Trillbilly Workers Party :Leftist podcast based in coal country, USA. Mostly a lot of local stuff about the small town they live in, but they have some good takes, and they need the exposure.
BitchFace Podcast:CRITIQUES OF POWER + WE GOT JOKES"
Minion Dead Cult: “They talk about news stories through the lens of insane right wing Facebook comments. It's a fun time.”
Delete Your Account - Analysis on current issues, e.g.healthcare, gaming industry unionization, evil landlords
Scumbag - Chapo's Felix and some guy that works in PR talk about internet weirdos (no longer active, but has a few good eps)
The Dig- another dead podcast - it's all a bit about Carl Diggler - a dril/journalist character played by Felix, and Virgil Texas as his millenial sidekick
Left Out:: podcast by Paul Sliker, Michael Palmieri, and Dante Dallavalle with in-depth conversations with leftist economists/organizers/thinkers.
Left Anchor: new podcast started in fall 2018 from Ryan Cooper & Alexi the Greek. Discussions between the hosts looking at historical leftist thinkers and applying to current events.
SWOTI (Someone's Wrong on the Internet): Hosted by Briahna Gray Joy and Joe Kunhilee, two leftist millennial POC. Entertaining and upbeat show that ranges from pop-culture to current events to dunking on centrist libs.
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Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191009(Market index 37- Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191009(Market index 37- Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/hwli4i9v7ir31.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3f41350dcae08c3b6e55744d86d701fac988ec


Daily Active Users Of EOS, Ethereum, IOST, And TRON DApps Totaled 137087 On Oct 7 Citing data from DApp Total, as of 00:00 (UTC+8), October 8, EOS, Ethereum, IOST, and TRON DApps recorded 137,087 daily active users (DAUs), 50.53% of which were EOS-based. 1. Number of users: EOS (69,269) > ETH (44,088) > TRON (23,730) > IOST (3,350); 2. Number of transactions: EOS (3,147,112) > TRON (923,074) > IOST (171,596) > ETH (150,730); 3. Trading volume: TRON ($10,356,177) > EOS ($5,251,676) > ETH ($4,935,403) > IOST ($930,711). In addition, across the Ethereum, EOS, IOST, and TRON blockchains, the top 3 DApps by user number are: Hash Baby (EOS), Xdapp (EOS), and Dice(EOS); the top 3 DApps by transaction number are: Dice (EOS), WINk (TRON), and Gako Binary Option (EOS); the top 3 DApps by trading volume are: WINk (TRON), Newdex (EOS), and EOS REX (EOS).
Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry To Legalize Cryptomining Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry plans to legalize cryptocurrency mining or cryptomining in Ukraine within two or three years.
Libra Could Be A ‘Systemically Important’ Payment Platform, Says Bank Of England In a statement made on Oct 8, the Bank of England (BoE) said that Libra is potentially a ‘systemically important’ payment platform, adding that it needs to be a regulated one as well. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee has pledged that British regulators will look into the functions of Libra and other payment firms, and address the question of applying traditional regulations to them. According to the committee, “The resilience of the proposed Libra system would rely on the stability of not just the core elements of the Libra Association and Libra Reserve but also the associated critical activities conducted by other firms in the Libra ecosystem such as validators, exchanges or wallet providers.”
Libra Association Considering “Step-Ladder” Approach To KYC Regulations The Libra Association is thinking of radical approaches to reach the unbanked in certain locations, including a “step-ladder” approach to know-your-customer (KYC) regulations, according to a recent report by CoinDesk. Per the report, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said it is open to working with Libra about potentially building new forms of digital identity. The report also revealed that Libra believes blockchain forensics firms like Chainalysis, Elliptic, and Coinfirm will help strengthen the case for “tiered KYC” by monitoring wallet profiles and transaction histories. Besides, non-profits in the Libra Association like the Kiva Foundation may play a key role.
Swiss National Bank and Swiss Stock Exchange Team Up On Central Bank-Backed Digital Currency The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and stock exchange SIX will jointly explore how to make central bank digital money available for the trading and settlement among financial market players. The buying and selling of assets based on digital ledger technology has the potential to reduce counterparty risk and create “significant” economic opportunities, SIX said in a statement Wednesday, October 9. The initiative is part the innovation hub for financial technology the Bank for International Settlements announced it was setting up earlier this year with the SNB. Other hub centers will be based in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Encrypted project calendar(October 09, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland. TRON (TRX): Next Wednesday, Oct 9th at 11am PDT I’ll be hosting another @PeriscopeCo / @YouTube Livestream iExec RLC (RLC): 09 October 2019 Osaka Meetup “An evening of quality food, free-flowing drinks and good company — just across the street from the conference!” Binance Coin BNB: 09 October 2019 Riga, Latvia Meetup “October 9th we invite you to visit our first Binance meetup in Riga, Latvia!” Pundi X (NPXS): 09 October 2019 Beyond Consensus “Beyond Consensus — Crypto in Asia” from 6–10 PM (JST). Chainlink (LINK): 09 October 2019 Chainlink Happy Hour “Come to the #Chainlink Happy Hour on Wed Oct 9th right next to the #Devcon5 conference on the Hyatt Regency rooftop!” BTC Lite (BTCL): 09 October 2019 DEX Listing BTC Lite (BTCL) will be listed on a decentralized exchange. BitTorrent (BTT): 09 October 2019 Live Product Update “Remember to join our CEO, @justinsuntron, on Oct 9th at 11am PDT for a product update live stream on BitTorrent Speed, BTFS, and BLIVE!”

Encrypted project calendar(October 10, 2019)

INB/Insight Chain: The Insight Chain (INB) INB public blockchain main network will be launched on October 10. VET/Vechain: VeChain (VET) will attend the BLOCKWALKS Blockchain Europe Conference on October 10. CAPP/Cappasity: Cappasity (CAPP) Cappasity will be present at the Osaka Global Innovation Forum in Osaka (October 10–11). TrueFeedBack (TFB): 10 October 2019 (or earlier) Application Release New version of TFB application and TFB bounty application. Sparkpoint (SRK): 10 October 2019 4rth Quarterly Burn SparkPoint ( SRK) will execute its 4rth quarterly burn on October 10, 2019. Insight Chain (INB): 10 October 2019 Mainnet Launch “The Mainnet for INB Public Blockchain Will be Launched on October 10.” Celer Network (CELR) and 4 others: 10 October 2019 Layer 2 Meetup Osaka “Join us at Layer 2 Meetup for fruitful networking, chilled atmosphere & sushi on October 10, 2019 during the DevCon in Osaka, Japan.” Cappasity (CAPP): 10 October 2019 Global Innovation Forum Cappasity presents at Osaka’s Global Innovation Forum in Osaka. ThoreNext (THX): 10 October 2019 Submission Last Date “$THX #THX Swap #Update Submission Last Date 10–10–2019”

Encrypted project calendar(October 11, 2019)

OKB/OKB: OKB (OKB) OKEx series of talks will be held in Istanbul on October 11th to discuss “the rise of the Turkish blockchain.” Aragon (ANT): 11 October 2019 Osaka DAO Party “We are excited to invite you to our @EFDevcon Aragon Dream DAO Party — DAICO Edition in Osaka on the evening of October 11th!” BitTorrent (BTT) and 1 othe: 11 October 2019 Airdrop “On October 11th 00:00 UTC we will initiate our ninth $BTT airdrop and reward TRON $TRX holders with 990,000,000 #BTT!” Zilliqa (ZIL): 11 October 2019 Dev Call “The Aztec Protocol team will be joining our 4th Dev Call this Friday at 2pm EST. We will be having interesting conversations about FOAM (FOAM): 11 October 2019 Osaka Happy Hour “Join FOAM and @3boxdb for a #DevCon Happy Hour in Osaka this Friday at Runway lounge.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 12, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 Global Mining Leaders Summit will be held in Chengdu, China from October 12th to 14th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 14, 2019)

BCH/Bitcoin Cash: The ChainPoint 19 conference will be held in Armenia from October 14th to 15th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 15, 2019)

RUFF/RUFF Token: Ruff will end the three-month early bird program on October 15th KAT/Kambria: Kambria (KAT) exchanges ERC20 KAT for a 10% bonus on BEP2 KAT-7BB, and the token exchange reward will end on October 15. BTC/Bitcoin: The Blockchain Technology Investment Summit (CIS) will be held in Los Angeles from October 15th to 16th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 16, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2019 Blockchain Life Summit will be held in Moscow, Russia from October 16th to 17th. MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on the theme of “Technology Problem Solving and Testing IoT Devices” at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on October 16. ETH/Ethereum: Ethereum launches Istanbul (Istanbul) main network upgrade, this main network upgrade involves 6 code upgrades. QTUM/Qtum: Qtum (QTUM) Qtum main network hard fork is scheduled for October 16.

Encrypted project calendar(October 18, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The SEC will give a pass on the VanEck/SolidX ETF on October 18th and make a final decision HB/HeartBout: HeartBout (HB) will officially release the Android version of the HeartBout app on October 18.

Encrypted project calendar(October 19, 2019)

PI/PCHAIN Network: The PCHAIN (PI) backbone (Phase 5, 82 nodes, 164, 023, 802 $ PI, 7 candidates) will begin on October 19. LINK/ChainLink: Diffusion 2019 will be held in Berlin, Germany from October 19th to 20th

Encrypted project calendar(October 21, 2019)

KNC/Kyber Network: The official online hackathon of the Kyber Network (KNC) project will end on October 21st, with more than $42,000 in prize money.

Encrypted project calendar(October 22, 2019)

ZRX/0x: The 0x protocol (ZRX) Pantera blockchain summit will be held on October 22.

Encrypted project calendar(October 23, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.” BTC/Bitcoin: The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th.

Encrypted project calendar(October 24, 2019)

BCN/Bytecoin: Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24.

Encrypted project calendar(October 25, 2019)

ADA/Cardano: Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25.

Encrypted project calendar(October 26, 2019)

KAT/Kambria: Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS. BTC/Bitcoin: CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28th

Encrypted project calendar(October 28, 2019)

LTC/Litecoin: Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USA BTC/Bitcoin: Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28 ZEC/Zcash: Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28th

Encrypted project calendar(October 29, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st.

Encrypted project calendar(October 30, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 1, 2019)

INS/Insolar: The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019.

Encrypted project calendar(November 6, 2019)

STEEM/Steem: The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.

Encrypted project calendar(November 8, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.

Encrypted project calendar(November 9, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.

BTC — Yesterday to this day, the BTC has been shaking slightly and is still hovering around $8,200. In the past 24 hours, the net inflow of BT funds is less than 40 million US dollars, and the market inflow of funds is gradually shrinking. Yesterday, BTC rose to around $8,400 and then withdrew. The rise was weakening. In the short run, it was still mainly a volatile market. It was more difficult to break through the bottom volatility directly. However, in the medium-term trend, BTC is currently under construction. Market sentiment is gradually warming up, with the following focus on the important support of $7,800. Operational aspects, close to $8,000 can be considered to buy appropriately, if the follow-up can again explore the support level, may usher in a more appropriate warehouse building opportunity.
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stockAday: Is salesforce twittering on the brink? $CRM

Key Stats for salesforce.com, inc.

Like lots of CRM shareholders, I've been scratching my head about them wanting to buy Twitter. So turbulence aside, is it good investment?
Ticker CRM
Sector Cloud Computing Services
Latest price $72.42
Value $49,608M
Daily vol $1,064M
Date 12 October 2016

Useful Links

Description

salesforce.com, inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions, with a focus on customer relationship management (CRM). The Company's Customer Success Platform, including sales force automation, customer service and support, marketing automation, community management, analytics, application development, etc.
So why buy Twitter? Here's that Reuters says:
Unlike Twitter, its main product is aimed at business users, not consumers. Under Salesforce.com, Twitter could become a corporate tool used to power sentiment analysis and nurture customer relationships.
Now odd that that might seem, remember that we the user of Google are not the "customers". The advertisers are the customers. So perhaps there is method in the madness?

Recent financials

It's really hard to not be impressed by a top line like CRM's! And given it's a "cloud" business with a "SaaS" model, the momentum should run. Why? folks are signing up for monthly subscriptions and they just seem to never go cancelling them in the software space.
Jan year-end 2016A 2015A 2014A 2013A 2012A
Revenue $6.7bn $5.4bn $4.1bn $3.1bn $2.3bn
EPS -$0.07 -$0.42 -$0.39 -$0.48 -$0.02
Of course, it's troubling that the company hasn't turned a profit in the last 5 years, but here's to a first in the year to Jan 2017!

Competition

Talking about the competition, Salesforce highlights:
We compete primarily with generalized platforms and vendors of packaged business software, as well as companies offering enterprise apps, including CRM, collaboration and business intelligence software. We also compete with internally developed apps. We may encounter competition from established enterprise software vendors, as well as start-up and midsized companies focused on disruption, who may develop toolsets and products that allow customers to build new apps that run on the customers’ current infrastructure or as hosted services.
Though one of the competitive risks they highlight is actual a strength of there own!
Many prospective customers have invested substantial personnel and financial resources to implement and integrate their current enterprise software into their businesses and therefore may be reluctant or unwilling to migrate away from their current solution to an enterprise cloud computing application service.
i.e. like a lot of software based services, once you've got the client they are loathed to leave.
And how does this show on in the financials, well the old men of Enterprise technology (MSFT, ORCL, SAP) enjoy little growth but great returns and margins. But the new kids, CRM, WDAY, NOW have the growth but little margin or return.
Companies Latest Sales Operating Profit Return on Equity
salesforce.com, inc. $7,475M 8% 4%
Microsoft Corporation $85,320M 33% 22%
Oracle Corporation $37,194M 42% 19%
SAP SE (ADR) $23,533M 32% 16%
Intuit Inc. $4,694M 32% 46%
Workday Inc $1,352M -15% -31%
ServiceNow Inc $1,194M -8% -117%

Cash / Debt?

If we look at salesforce's balance sheet we can see it has $1,340M of net debt. That is 2.2x it's latest operating profit. So it's a $50bn market value business with quite a bit of debt on it's books and it's considering a bid for TWTR a $13bn value business (though $2bn of that is cash).

Wall Street thinks?

The professionals on Wall Street have a $93.51 for salesforce.com, inc. and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 29% to their target.

Valuation

I've always struggled to value the highflying SaaS businesses. The regular metrics just don't give any comfort. And if I switch to price-to-sales I still get faced with CRM on 6x forward sales versus MSFT/ORCL on 4x. So where's the comfort there?
And I can't even hang my hat on the earnings the year after next :( With a forecast of $0.95 this year and just $1.27 the year after.
View Peers Valuation Forecast PE Long-term Growth Dividend Yield FCF Yield
CRM $49,608M 76x 30% 0% 1%
MSFT.O $445,654M 20x 9% 3% 8%
ORCL.K $156,056M 14x 8% 2% 9%
SAP $110,016M 21x 11% 1% 6%
INTU.O $27,597M 25x 17% 1% 5%
WDAY.K $17,570M -ve 38% 0% -ve
NOW $12,963M 120x 44% 0% -ve
To try and justify the valuation you need to dig into the cashflow statement and drink from the SaaS KoolAid. For example on the managements 2Q results they talked about:
our full year operating cash flow guidance to a year-over-year growth rate of 20% to 21% which allows us to remain on track for our first $2 billion cash flow year.
Now 25x cashflow doesn't look "hideous" for a business growing like CRM... but if you start looking at the way that figure is calculated, I expect you'll be surprised to see Depreciation > capex, half of the figure coming in deferred revenue, and a substantial % from stock-options-plan adjustments.

Dividends

You won't be surprised that salesforce.com, inc. is not forecast to pay a dividend this year.
Though in share contrast to the big caps who like doing share buybacks, the number of share in circulation at CRM is up substantially in each of the last 5 years.

Catalysts

In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by -11% that compares with no change in the earnings forecasts. The backdrop has been continued double digit top line growth at 26% in the first 6 months.
On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers, they raised guidance for sales, expressed confidence in their margin, spoke of an exciting new set of products (e.g. Einstein), strong cashflows and much more.
In the near-term it's hard to see any catalyst other than the rumor mill round Twitter. And binary outcomes are a horrible environment to take a position in. You'll either feel like a hero or get hammered.
For me, it's one to sit out. Unless of course the stock get's hammered, with investors throwing the baby out with the bathwater!
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. Note: I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
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