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Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two
So yesterday I created the first part to the 'post' Today I'll continue it. All markets, equities, cars, widgets, groceries, bonds and even forex are driven by volume. Without volume there is no movement as it's the market maker to entice the trader to aggressively buy or sell based upon their sentiments of direction. So let's first put into perspective market sentiment and what it is for this posts purpose. Sentiment is the psychological pressure of trader expectations in movement. It's visible through intermarket analysis and even some indexes when the indexes are properly cross referenced. But sentiment is visible even when candles stop their climb or when buying pressure supports the prices on an attempt to move lower. What comes after sentiment builds it's pressure is the path of least resistance and that's really what the markets are doing. Following the path of least resistance with volume as the rivers boundaries. Volume in foreign exchange is real. Retail traders think that because the market is decentralized that volume isn't available. Well, the broker you connect to, and the prime broker or bank that they connect to, they source their pricing with risk management modules by analyzing aggregated volume. Aggregation is a grouping of FX liquidity streams (that all include volume levels) into one hub of liquidity housed inside a limit order book. Volume is not made available to you though. It's the playground of the banks and if you're going to have access to a tool that allows the masses to dilute their returns do you think they would let you have it freely? Nope! They would though lobby for laws (Dodd-Frank, FIFO etc etc come to mind here) they all make it more difficult for you to trade!!!! Opacity!!! But volume is very real, it only needs proper aggregation! So how do we find valuable opportunities when studying the charts? First off, if you study the charts alone you're doing yourself a great disservice! EURUSD in any time frame is just a representation of a relationship between two currencies. You need to study the value of the underlying currencies! What that provides you is precision entries. Let's call the entry on Candle 12 (an arbitrary number). On candle 12 you see USDCHF spike higher, that would indicate that EURUSD is going to drop 96% of the time! Oh a little insight! So you take a position short EURUSD on candle 12 in expectation that the relationship between the two currencies is going to go lower because of the strength in the Dollar. But remember, exchange rate fluctuation is the path of least resistance. So at the point where you have found your entry short in EURUSD, there is the opposite consideration. What if I am wrong? What it if goes the other way? At what price would it show me the opposite direction and how long do I have to wait to confirm a reversal? Candle 12 is magical. It tells you what you need. You see, in ALL instances, extremes high or lows of charts are seen by changes in what's called bid/ask bounce. When bid ask bounce is breached it's giving you sentiment, volume and price all shifting directions. If candle 12 is the candle short, then the high immediately prior to candle 12 is your reversal point! I guarantee you this is the intersection of buyers and sellers, and when one defeats the other the market changes direction. This is true for all of the entries here, if price reversed before it reached a profitable exit then the reverse would in fact be at the opposite extreme prior to the entry candle. So we go back and visit the adage buy low/sell high but what happens in between? Proper analysis is an active participation. And just as your analysis says you should buy or sell, your analysis should also tell you how the market is reacting in the middle. If there's no change or breach in bid/ask bounce the trend is still moving. In the attached chart. When an entry signal is confirmed, the immediate high or low prior to that entry becomes the exact reversal point. (I have circled them in yellow) In most of the opportunities shown that stop loss is a mere 2.2 pips away from the entry price and there are no reversals that were required and all signals were profitably identified. No I did not trade them, this is live analysis that runs continually. Of all the signals there is ONE blue X in the center region of the chart that almost gave a sell signal but price pressures remained in tact and thus bullish. The analysis identifies over 100 pips in movement within a range of 35 pips overall. And none of it with lagging analysis. With proper analysis, you can maximize your returns by comprehensively understanding all market conditions. You'll minimize your losing trades to negligible frequencies, your gains will be maximized and you'll see precisely how the market moves, turns, breathes and follows the path of least resistance. Now my purpose here is to develop market transparency for the little guy. Sure my posts attract trolls because the trolls have been burned by their own trading ignorance. So they attack those that strive for and deliver something better, in fact most of them don't know how to trade to save their life and that's their anger. I could show you a few of them who have had accounts with companies I advise or am principal of - but there are privacy rights to respect. Do I do this free? On here of course. Is it a business? I've spent over a million dollars in just research, but when I experienced how expensive it was to obtain true transparency I knew there were benefits to providing this information to retail traders. https://preview.redd.it/367rn2d6p3s51.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e99e1604a078b6aa0916f32be91ce16bc5196320
Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
Yes, China is Hoarding Gold: Is That Positive for Prices?
In mid-2015, China ended years of speculation over its gold reserves by announcing that it had 1,658 tons of gold. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) had increased its official gold holdings by 60% since its last disclosure in 2009. China had 1,054 tons of gold in its reserves as of April 2009. By 2015, the price of bullion had dipped to its lowest since the 2011 gold bull run that pushed the metal to highs of $1,900 per ounce. The East Asian economic giant had been accumulating gold as the USD strengthened, pushing the prices of bullion to some of the lowest levels of the decade. China is an export powerhouse and is not only the world’s largest exporter but also the largest holder of foreign exchange (forex) reserves. The country has over $3.11 trillion worth of foreign exchange holdings, to shield it during economic emergencies. These vast forex reserves also buoy its native currency and give it much-needed clout in international affairs. These immense reserves increase the footprint of the US dollar in international trade. Its dollar reserves have also been a significant contributor to the current global savings glut. The Chinese manufacturing sector holds a lot of US government bonds, and these savings — plus those made by other Asian countries — have directed mass capital flows to US households. Beijing has, however, clarified that it is diversifying its reserves away from the dollar. Beijing is highly exposed to American currency. Its overdependence on the dollar has been behind its silent gold-buying spree that raised its reserves from 1,658 tons in 2015 to 1,848.31 tons by the fourth quarter of 2019. Economists note that China’s bid to decouple from the dollar heightened with the China-US trade war. The US threatened not only Chinese stocks listed in the US with delisting, but slapped massive tariffs on their exports. China, on the other hand, used its dollar-pegged currency, the Yuan, to fight back against the US’s punitive measures.
China Diversifying its Forex Reserves
In August, the PBOC allowed the Yuan’s value to fall against the dollar to cheapen its exports. The move increased the prices of American goods, a move that not only caused a massive shockwave in the market but also angered the US president so much that he called China an outright currency manipulator. Besides diversifying to other currencies, China has also accumulated “shadow reserves.” Diversification away from the USD will also give the Yuan a more significant role in global finance. It is this Chinese desire to counteract a highly US dollar-centric system that has seen the country buy up massive amounts of gold as part of its alternative investments. One factor that has gone almost unnoticed is the massive accumulation of gold by Chinese citizens. They have collectively imported over 12,000 tons of gold into the country since 2009. Switzerland is the world’s largest importer of gold, buying about 22% of all global gold imports as per 2018 data. It is closely followed by China, which raked in close to 16% of all gold imports in the same year. Hong Kong, India, and the United Kingdom are also part of the world’s biggest gold-buyer markets. Switzerland might be a global leader in gold imports, but it is also the largest exporter of the premier precious metal. The central European country is a gold refinery hub, and it is home to four of the world’s largest gold refineries. The mountainous country is home to Newmont Mining’s Valcambi SA, which refines close to 1,400 metric tonnes of the precious metal every year. Switzerland is such an exporter of gold that of the 3,100 tons of the yellow metal produced in the country in 2016, 2,716 tons went to exports.
China Keeps Most of its Gold
China is the world’s second-largest importer of gold, but unlike Switzerland, most of the gold China imports remain in China. As an illustration, China imported $64 billion worth of gold in 2016, and only exported a paltry $1.2 billion worth of it. In essence, China was $62.7 billion richer by the end of that year. The East Asian nation not only stores its imports but also buys a large share from Hong Kong, the fifth most prolific importer of the precious metal. The Pearl of the Orient bought 842 tons or 8.7% of the world’s gold imports in 2016. In that year, Hong Kong sold 1,337 tons to China, dipping its hands into its reserves in its bid to meet the insatiable Chinese demand for gold. The Chinese have not always had it easy with gold. Mao Zedong banned the individual purchase of gold, and the ban was enforced for decades afterward. The Chinese bank was the only buyer of gold in the country, and it only allocated its gold reserves to a small number of state-owned jewelers. In the early 2000s, the ban on individual gold purchases was lifted, and the Chinese gold rush began in earnest. The world’s busiest physical gold exchange was launched and opened to the public, flourishing as the government put measures in place that encouraged the gold trade. This excitement and clamor for gold moved a lot of gold from western vaults to the east as the most massive movement of gold recorded in recent history took place. Since then, the Chinese demand for gold takes 14% of the world’s supply, yet the country has been the largest producer of the yellow metal since 2007. The nation consumes over two times more gold than it mines with a large percentage of its citizens spending massive amounts of cash on gold adornments. Many Chinese millennials spend thousands of Yuan on fashionable jewelry. Their parents, on the other hand, buy 24-carat clunky gold jewelry, the perfect investment vehicle for that generation. The jewelry — evocative of gold ingots — is easy to sell and the money recouped when the need arises. They also buy matt ranges of gold jewelry, shunning tacky pure gold adornments for creative and lower carat gold designs.
Gold is a Safer Investment in a Debt-Ridden Global Economy
China has been a net importer of gold since the 1990s, but its significant purchases have increased since the global economic recession. The Chinese central bank — the supervisors of the Shanghai Gold Exchange — has encouraged the gold trade in the country by enabling the commerce of fine gold at its lowest spreads. Sun Zhaoxue, the China Gold Association president, has, in the past, said: “Individual investment demand is an essential component of China’s gold reserve system, and we should encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is a useful supplement to national reserves and is very important to national financial security …. We should advocate to ‘store gold among the people’ [“People’s Gold”] and guide a healthy, positive development in this segment … This is the aim of our gold strategy.” She goes on to ask for a strategic national gold strategy to make China resilient against multiple economic occurrences. To this end, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has made tremendous steps in making the gold trade as easy as possible, even launching an app to aid it. China’s centuries-old infatuation with gold has led them to accumulate over 20,000 tons of gold because the People’s Bank of China does not buy gold from the domestic market. Consequently, all the gold that is purchased by the Chinese stays in the local market. Pundits also believe that the Chinese central bank holds more gold than its official reserve numbers portray. The economic giant underreports its gold holdings to enable it to accumulate more of the precious metal at lower prices. As China slowly delinks from a USD that has already lost its value due to prevailing high debt to GDP ratios globally, it stands out as one nation prepping for an oncoming economic catastrophe that could inevitably lift prices. The World Bank has already issued a warning that the current wave of debt is untenable. Global debt percentages now exceed 322% of GDP. Central banks have pushed the global economy to the brink due to easing policies meant to stimulate economic activity. Unfortunately, they find themselves intertwined in a broadening circle of money printing activities, which will eventually lead to extreme inflation. The management of inflation means that real rates will keep falling, and gold values will keep rising. In debt-ridden financial systems, he who holds the gold makes the rules. And China is ready to step up.
My dear colleagues, No doubt many of you have read, listened or watched the news and social media coverage on the speculation of me vacating the Governor’s position. In fact, you were probably queried and asked by numerous family and friends on the validity of these reports. This morning, I thought it is important that I speak to you candidly on this matter. When I took office in May 2016, I vowed to execute the responsibility of the office of the Governor with the highest level of professionalism, integrity and honour. Over the past few weeks, there have been serious questions raised if I have fallen short of this standard and put at risk public confidence in the Bank. As a central bank, we are only as effective as the trust and confidence that the people of Malaysia and its leaders place in us. I am prepared to relinquish my post if I no longer have the strong trust and support of the public. I cannot in good conscience continue if it affects the Bank’s image and reputation. We are judged by the decisions we make, like for example the recent purchase of Lot 41, acquired at RM850 per square foot, which has attracted wide public interest. The perception is that the purchase of the land was made to intentionally aid and abet the misappropriation of public funds pertaining to the corruption and scandal surrounding 1MDB. This is totally untrue. Bank Negara Malaysia will never be party to any such activities that would betray the public trust in us. We abhor any semblance of corruption and abuse of power. Skeptical as many may be, the Bank did not know nor did we have any control over the proceeds of the land purchase that would be used to settle 1MDB’s obligations. It is simply unthinkable for us to be associated with such a controversial entity mired with accusations of fraud and mismanagement. It is not in our nature to do such things. We even took enforcement action against them earlier. The 1MDB scandal has cost the country dearly and as a Malaysian myself, I am deeply angered, distressed and outraged. This is indeed a matter of significant public focus and I can understand why any association with the scandal, unintended or otherwise, is invariably met with a strong sense of public outrage. My priority now is for the Bank to move forward and continue to focus on delivering its mandates to serve the Malaysian people. My dear colleagues, The purchase of Lot 41 land was not the first time we have done such a transaction. As many of you would know, we have over the years, acquired several pieces of land throughout the country to enable the discharge of our mandates. Our own headquarters presently were built on three separate land acquisitions made in the 1950s and 1980s. The Bukit Perdana land, acquired in 2013 at the price of RM1,235 per square foot was also based on an independent professional valuer, upon which the ongoing construction of the Asian School of Business and the Financial Industry Training Centre are being done, are also the nearest examples. We have also always wanted to create greater synergies between our numerous affiliated institutions and ensure talent development for the financial sector workforce. With this objective in mind, we indicated our interest as early as September of 2016. We initiated the purchase of the land a year later when we knew that there was an emergent interest by the Government then to sell this land. We believe that it was an excellent opportunity to secure an asset on fair terms that will be central to sustain our future long-term growth. We have a vision for a Financial Education Hub that will also host among others, a global Islamic finance university, a Shariah academy and research centre, a financial services library, innovation labs, a cybersecurity operations centre and an integrated security command centre. We ensured that everything was done in the right manner, with proper governance and accountability, including compliance with all relevant laws. Internally, we deliberated this at a number of Board meetings. We even recommended to the Government for the sale to be best done by way of a public tender which we would be glad to participate competitively in along with any other interests. We also chose to publish a press release in January 2018 to inform the public of the purchase in our effort to be transparent. Coming out fresh from the experience of a Royal Commission of Inquiry on forex losses of thirty-years past, the Bank was careful to make sure everything is above board. We knew that we need to pass the test of public scrutiny in everything we do to maintain our reputation and confidence of the public. For more than 34 years, I have always strived to serve, to do my best in the interest of the country, its values and its people. The office of the Governor is a heavy responsibility with great capacity for good. It is also a privilege, as it entails working with possibly the best talents Malaysia has to offer. Malaysia is at a critical juncture in our history, it is important for us to stand united as an institution in rising to the occasion. The Malaysian people expect nothing less than our full dedication and commitment. This institution is bigger than any individual, and I truly believe our best days are ahead of us. Let us draw courage, lessons and strength from this. Thank you. Regards, Muhammad bin Ibrahim Governor
I am an idiot. Please help me not be an idiot anymore.
I have a bit of a cringeworthy story about my first 2 months in the stock market. I asked one of the mods if it would be ok to post here and they thought it would be good for this sub. A little entertainment for the weekend. Keep in mind I am a college student, that saved about $7k over the summer. Ok, here we go: I made a very dumb choice. One of the worst any new investor could make. I decided to start my investing experience in penny stocks. It all started back in Aug. after the "crash". It seemed like a great time to get in. I checked a few subreddits and came across NETE (I'm still not sure exactly what they even do. Something about mobile payments.) It was all good for the first few weeks and I learned the basics to the stock market. However, I was down by about 5% but only had $200 in so no big sweat, right? Well I thought I was ready for real money (Biggest mistake of my life), so I invested $1300 more in it to cover my losses. This was money I already planned on investing. Later that week I lost another 10%, price just dropped out of no where. Strange, but I wasn't too worried. The pumpers set my mind at ease and told me it would recover soon, so average down. After a few days there was no news looming, except a some insider investing and a pending SEC filing. So I thought, what the hell. Cant hurt to throw another $1000 at it. 10% up and I'll cover my losses and then some. The next day, it was announced that they were filling for reverse split and wanted to vote in a few months on it. Literally drove my portfolio down another about 10% in a day. I died a little inside but I accepted defeat. While all this is going on I did happen to make a little money on the side with GBSN. $20 here, $40 there. So I decided to move my money there so I could make $200 here, $400 there. I was even more confident since, they just released some news that customer acquisition was up and the only thing against them were some outstanding warrants. But it seemed as though the warrants already drove the price down as much as it could go, so I was in a good place. I got in with about $800 at 0.08 and watched it go to 0.10, cool beans right? Wrong again. I was invest investing in GBSN in increments to get the best average price possible. And had about $500 left so I got the bright idea out of thin air to YOLO my money in RXII because it was up about 0.10 that day and reached about 0.60 (mind you I had only over this stock on my Robinhood watch list a couple times). I thought I was catching it on a swing down since it dropped down to 0.55. I was going to ride it back up to 0.60 and get out. Well it went up to about 0.56 and just went down after that. For the rest of the day it lingered around 0.53-0.54 and then dropped down to 0.48 the next day. It was like the universe decided to hit me over the head with a sludge hammer and flip me off. I came to find out the price fell all because some penny stock alert told a bunch of people to pull out. So at this point I'm in dumbfounded in complete awe. I didn't even make much money on GBSN because it was countered by RXII. Angered, I decided to stick with my original plan and pull out of GBSN (@ 0.09) and RXII (@ 0.48) and buy back in on the next swing down to .08. It usually made it back up to 0.09 some time in the week so it seemed like a quick trade. I put another $1000 and bought back in @ .083. Well the SAME DAY., Nasdaq issued a delisting warning for GBSN and the price dropped lower than my IQ. Over the next couple of days it went all the way down to 0.06 and I decided I had enough. I finally got out at .059. After a few days of thinking I had it all settled, I decided I would get back in GBSN at .045 and ride the wave back up to at least .07. So I sold on Monday and waited for all of my money to clear, on Thursday so I could get back in and the price should be 0.05 or lower. Well just to my luck, Wednesday it went down to like .051 and shot up over 30% to like .07. I died a little more inside. I had to sit there and watch my brilliant plan go to shit while I'm sitting in class taking a test (teacher was sleep). I woke up thursday morning and saw it was down for a bit but then jumped back up to like 0.075 so I got back in on a swing down to 0.072. It went back up to 0.075 but I just knew it was gonna go higher. Well it didnt. I literally went down to 0.07-0.0718 and stayed in that range for about 2hrs. I set my stop loss @ 0.0675 when I saw it drop break below 0.07 for the first time. It bounced between 0.068-0.071 but about an hour later it sold my position and GBSN was dropping ever since. At that moment I told myself I was done gambling like a bafoon and deleted all the penny stocks in my watchlist. I added Bank of America, Apple, Nokia, Netflix, and Ford to take their places. I had been watching these on and off for a while and doing a little dd on them. Tl;Dr: Wanted a check, got REKT. A message to new investors. Stay out of penny stocks! For now at least. It can be a great way to make a lot of money, when you know what you're doing. And you are probably smarter than me, but its a whole different beast than your standard day trading. They need CONSTANT attention. I spent most of my class periods and work hours glued to my phone, trying to make sure I didn't lose too much at once. Still got destroyed anyway. Right now I have about $3100. I will not be adding any more in the see able future. I am tired of making idiotic decisions and want to turn my portfolio around. Please help me:
How do you properly do DD? (List the things I should know before making any type of investment)
How long should I watch a stock before getting in?
What catalyst are most influential in affecting a stock's price?
Are there any other suggestions on how to properly invest?
EDIT: Ok so a lot of people are stating "Hey, you were just gambling. You need to change you're mindset if you want to ever make any money. Stop investing in penny stocks" Thank you. I get it. I knew I was really just gambling instead of investing and wanted to change that. 1) The point of this is to warn others not to follow my mistakes, 2) Get some advice on how to change, 3) Give you guys a good story to laugh at. Edit 2: I forgot to mention this, STAY THE HELL AWAY FORM STOCKTWITS. Especially if you do decide to get into penny stocks. It is literally ALL pumpers. No one listens to the bears and calls them crazy. You won't have a clear understanding of a company if all you listen to is the good? Edit 3: Now I keep hearing people say I lost half my money and would have to double my current position to get it back in 6 months. 1) I didn't lose half of my money $1500+$3100=$4600. I don't have to double my money I to get it back. What I lost is about half of what I have seculeded right now for future investments. But honestly Im only focusing on a $1000 since I set that as my goal. 2) Im not expecting to make it back in exactly 6 months from today. I said 6 months to a year but I'm leaning closer to a year. And this is only after I believe I'm ready to get back in. Which may be awhile from now. Sorry about the miscommunication there Just remembered something funny. My cousin was trying to me into the forex market and I thought I was going to take the easy way out with the stock market. One one hand the stock market is still not child's play and I underestimated it. On the other hand forex trading would have bankrupted me in days.
So I've recently got a scammer through a dating app. We matched and started chatting right away. She was weirdly too invested and sweet, but nothing like the red flags to follow. Over a few weeks we started chatting more frequently and she'd casually drop hints that she had money. Lots of it. Red Flag 1. My spidey senses were tingling but instead of walking away I decided to see where this would lead. I kept being aloof and not pursuing any topic related to money to see how far the scammer would go to try and bait me. We'd often times chat for hours, about mundane things, life and so forth. Sometimes with voice, sometimes, we'd send photos to one another. I admit that after 2 months I was considering the possibility of her just being someone really oblivious about the number 1 rule about finances. (You don't talk about your personal finances, specially to strangers.) Sometimes she'd casually venture back into talking about money, but, as I clearly did not pursue those topics any further, she'd drop it entirely. Interestingly enough, that never kept her from switching topics. 3 Months later... One day she randomly mentioned bitcoin and how she was trying to learn more about it. Me being someone who casually played a bit with it and have some miner friends, I got curious about the topic and indulged her. She was very clueless about how bitcoin actually works, and had no idea it had to be mined. Which was quite interesting, as she was apparently genuinely unfamiliar with anything other than it's value and basic understanding of how the speculation alone was what dictated the price. Eventually she dropped the bombshell. She was part of an exchange and she was making bank through it because a manager in the exchange would advise her on how to make money. CRIMSON DEATH FLAG FROM HELL My eyebrow went up and through the roof. This was it ladies and gentleman. The long game came to a climax (or so I thought). She was about to strike. I aloofly replied saying that sounded cool and I was happy it was working out for her. Doing my best to not let out any emotion whatsoever. She then happily asked me if I wouldn't want to join her on the exchange and have her refer me to the guy who was managing her account. A cocktail of happiness, sadness and anger is the best way to describe my emotions at the time. I was happy the scammer finally came out with her fangs, I was sad because at the end of the day I have to admit I was enjoying chatting with her daily and angry because this girl whom I was chatting through text, audio and even video was clearly someone malicious doing it to take my money. This was the first time I had seen such a long con game, and I have to say. I am genuinely impressed. I recomposed myself, and with a wry smile I thanked her and mentioned I'd consider it maybe into future. It was my turn to play the long game now. She was cheerful about it and casually mentioned she couldn't wait to be able to chat together about bitcoin and make money together. I had a hard time trying not to cringe at the very end of that sentence. Another month rolls by, and we're still casually chatting about daily life. That topic had not come up in a while, and I was at this point actually hoping she'd just bare her fangs again. I'm a patient guy, but for the first time I felt a weird awkward and hard to explain discomfort about this all. This girl was extremely sweet and caring, and I knew deep down that was nothing but a façade. A shallow part of me actually wanted to believe her, which made me most sickened. I kept on pushing forward, and lost track of when she first struck, but eventually she did it again. She brought up the exchange and asked me what I thought about it. I decided to investigate further into the matter, and casually let her tell me about it. She introduced to this shifty guy called Makler on WeChat. Satan's used bog roll flag I spoke to the guy faking interest and got an website address out of him. I Google Searched the domain, lo' and behold: Screenshot There were many other hits, but these alone were definitely the most interesting hits. I've read through it and my heart sank as I read tales of lonely men so desperate they fell for this surface level scam. Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to take a look at the website. I had to see with my own eyes. Screenshot Considering all the money they were making from these poor souls, I was floored that a website this dodgy looking was actually being successful at ripping off people like this. This sad excuse of a website, a waste of bits if you will, did not even have an SSL certificate going for it. The NFA certification was a clear bait and switch for anyone willing to do the most basic of researches, and simplest understanding of how a FOREX works. Yet here we were. Note: I gave up on pointing out red flags at this point. Every single line after the first red flag should be considered a red flag actually. Anyways. I was not done. I was not letting this end here. I was going to waste more time. This person on the other end was going to waste her time. I was not going to let this end easily. Having a hard time not letting my complete disgust show, I said I was going to consider it later, as I had more pressing matters, but we could discuss about it later. Without a beat, and with an angelic smile she says that's totally fine and changes topic. I mentioned I was feeling a bit sick and tired, and said I was going to rest. I ended the video call. Had I not, I would have laid all this effort to waste. I was not doing that. I went out for a bike ride and see if some fresh air would make the washing machine in my stomach go away. A day went by and she messaged me "worried", asking if I was ok, and how was I feeling. I came up with the ploy that I had caught a flu, and was resting. I'll spare you folks the details, but for a while I distanced myself a bit from it, without letting it show. Eventually we went back into our daily tirade. As if nothing had happened. I have to give it to her, she was really good at coming up with topics to talk about, and to make matters worse, she was clearly smart and well read making talking about anything usually a pleasant time. (Except for every other minute where I'd remember this creature in front of me was playing with it's prey, me.) Another month went by. We're 7 months in now. Today she tried again, possibly running out of patience? I decided to end the façade. I had her confirm the website, and then shown her what I had found regarding the site. She faked being in shock, and suggested the possibility of it all being a smear campaign. I could not help but laugh. I asked her why was she doing such a terrible thing. She started to cry. A tear ran down my cheek. I realized I let this person into my life thinking nothing of it, and before I knew, I somehow deep down felt bad for this person. 7 months, where I let this person into my day to day. We'd chat about anything and everything. Almost like an actual relationship between friends. Even tho I knew from the very beginning she meant to harm me, and that nothing of this was real, this hit me like a truck. I disconnected. Turned off my phone, left it to charge and pulled my notebook, where I'm currently typing this. I know how to proceed from here. This sadness will wear off. But what have we humans became?
I have 100.000$ secret debt and need to tell my wife
TL;DR 100k$ secret debt from day trading over past 5 years, want to confess to my wife. Need tips on how to survive the talk. In the last 5 years I have accumulated 100.000$ of debt (spread over 3 loans and 3 credit cards) through day trading (FOREX and CFD). The way I got to this point is the usual, lost some money and took out loans to win it all back, lost again, repeat until the bank didn’t give me any more money. Through the power of suppression I only realized the deep shit I was in until I was fully immersed. I have been married for 6 years with 2 daughters (5 and 3). Over the last 5 years I have been the only source of income for our household, but my wife has recently started to work again part time. I really love my wife and apart from my huge financial betrayal we have a healthy relationship. The burden of this secret is now getting unbearable for me (had one panic attack a few weeks ago) so that I want to open up to her. I have come to the point where I accept that the money is lost and there will be no easy way to win it back through more trading. I have closed my 2 trading accounts and made a plan how to pay back my loans and credit card debt. I have a secure and well-paying job and it would (optimistically) take at 3-4 years to arrive at zero. So while I have of course financially ruined my family, at least we are not on the brink of homelessness and starvation. My greatest fear is that I will lose my wife and kids. If it was a few thousands I would not worry so much, but this is now a sum that could have paid for a good part of a home (we are renting and now will be for the foreseeable future). Whatever her reaction, there is obviously no alternative to coming completely clean about everything to save my family. I really don’t know how I should start this conversation and how to handle my wife’s (more than justified) expected angry reaction. I can already picture me and my wife sitting on our sofa after my confession, she being completely speechless at first, than comes the anger and yelling and that I have destroyed the trust in out relationship (which I undoubtedly have). She is a very kind and gentle person, but can be also very emotional, which are all traits I love her for. To further complicate matters her mother is seriously ill and it’s her and my daughter’s birthday in a week. So not a good time for bad news, but I guess better now than in a week. I appreciate any advice on how to diffuse the dreaded conversation. [remorse]
Despite the huge amount of hype, AMAs, and the deployment of a plethora of sycophants patrolling Telegram, Reddit etc., Liquid ICO has returned absolutely zero value to investors, and everything promised in their 2017 white paper remains undelivered. Buyers who threw more than 100m USD into Quoine coffers are now left with a coin valued at less than a quarter of its initial offer, and no use for it. Most disappointingly, ICO proceedings have not been allocated as promised, and the Liquid team is just using them for its own purposes. Quoine (Liquid) is a healthy exchange, and the likelihood of seeing funds returned is very realistic if a legal class action is put forward.
1. Has the project accomplished the goals set out in the white paper?
It is staggering to see the difference between what the white paper promised to ICO investors in 2017 and what Quoine team has actually achieved.As the crux of its master plan, Liquid planned to aggregate all major crypto exchanges into a single world order book and use Forex exchanges to blend order books across different FIAT currencies. Supercomputers would be able to process astronomical numbers of trades at the speed of light, Liquid and Qash were just about to conquer the imminent future of all crypto exchanges and global crypto trading.This idea crashed when the Quoine Team realised that they also needed to move FIAT across accounts to make that work, and FIAT transactions are much slower than digital ones.More than one year has passed since then and, not surprisingly, not a single point of the white paper has been accomplished; Quoine/Liquid is now just an exchange which has simply lost some of its market share against more successful competitors.And still, they come out with statements such as:
‘’We envision QASH could even become the preferred standard Token used to pay for all services provided by the broader financial industry…’’
‘’QUOINE is already in discussion with multiple financial institutions, FinTech startups and partners to make QASH the preferred payment Token for upcoming and existing financial services.’’
In Q2 2019, Qash will have its own blockchain
In Q3 2019, Quoine will be granted a banking license
Example from Quoine's whitepaper The harsh reality is that Qash has never been used to pay a single penny of any financial transaction, there are no financial institutions considering it for payments. Quoine is not applying for or being granted, a banking license, and Qash will not have its own blockchain in 2019 or ever. Of all the complex diagrams, flow charts, and mind-blowing dreams, advertised in their 2017 white paper, nothing has been achieved, not even the internal order book which was meant to simply aggregate Quoine’s own internal order books. Fourteen months after starting their project, Quoine officials have not been able to name a single Exchange officially onboard for Liquid project. We remain unconvinced to when they claim: ‘’some of the exchanges we are in contact with, do not feel comfortable to have their names disclosed…’’ And while investors’ expectations have been pushed aside, a massive effort has been deployed to build up a squadron of sycophants called ‘community champions’, meant to simulate participation and interest for the few genuine members of the chats in which they participate, as well as surveilling and banning any critical comment or negativity on media such as Telegram, Reddit and others. Quoine has simply chosen to pocket investors’ money and put up something to soothe their anger and despair. However, most of the funds are still held by the issuer and will be likely returned to purchasers if a legal class action is put forward.
3. How has the team made use of funds? Have funds been used exclusively for the purposes of the project?
Quoine executives have blatantly stated on several occasions that some of the resources dedicated to Liquid project, were diverted to help Quoine to comply with Japanese regulators. That came at the cost of significantly delaying or even abandoning of the goals of the project. It is clear to us that Qash buyers have financed the project as described in the white paper with the purposes of making good use of the tokens, not with the purpose of fixing Quoine’s financials and operations. Moreover, in regard to the allocation of tokens proceedings, the white paper stated: https://preview.redd.it/abp34cftngn21.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=e08e0eb4d1d6a943e9377b244cddf6ea90df753f We strongly doubt that any of the above has been maintained:
20% of 100m would make a hefty $20m of investments in the development of the Liquid platform, but looking at what has been released so far, the result is worth a tiny fraction of what it was supposed to be.
50% ($50m) of the proceedings in liquidity: as far as the architecture of the project is concerned, these proceedings were supposed to be deposited and used in those accounts opened at the partner exchanges, but because the project never started, we expect them to be still in Quoine bank account.
Most appallingly, what Quoine presented in 2018 as Liquid, is merely a new UI design of Quoine platform with an improved market maker running the order book; nothing of that is in the interest of or beneficial to Qash buyers, who remain still unserved in their expectations of service/product. We observe huge equivocation with Liquid ICO: subscribers fairly expect things such as the return of their investment, good use of the tokens etc., conversely Quoine executives believe that the money was given to them as support for their corporate interests and financial performance, and bear little obligation to deliver promises. Overall, Quoine has never released a single piece of information about how ICO proceedings have been spent.
4. Does the idea of the project require blockchain implementation?
The project would require a blockchain implementation if Qash was really meant to be used as a method of payment between entities outside Liquid, unfortunately, this fundamental aspect has been missed as well as all the others.
5. Is the token innovative in some way?
No, – Qash token is just a duplication of the ERC20 token, wrapped in a bunch of spin and marketing.
Qash is currently trading at less than a quarter of its initial value but, most scarily, Qash markets have very poor liquidity and there is no support to contrast even mild dumping. We encourage all Qash tokens holders and earlier investors who have suffered financial losses associated with the purchase of the tokens, to join our class action with confidence, based on the following:
Quoine has failed to achieve any of the promises set out in the ICO white paper
Quoine has not made proper and exclusive use of the ICO proceedings, particularly has not allocated funds as promised in the white paper
More than a year since inception, it appears clear that none of the milestones of the project is in place, nor will it ever be achieved: no utility, no world order book, no banking license, no Qash blockchain, no use of Qash as a payment method in financial services
…what is the point of investors’ money still held by the issuer, other than paying salaries and dividends at Quoine?
Has Qash-Liquid accomplished the goals set out in the white paper?
It is staggering to see the difference between what the white paper promised to ICO investors in 2017 and what the Quoine team has actually achieved. As the crux of its master plan, Liquid endeavoured to aggregate all major crypto exchanges into a single world order book and use Forex exchanges to blend order books across different FIAT currencies. Supercomputers would be able to process astronomical numbers of trades at the speed of light. Liquid and Qash were just about to conquer the imminent future of all crypto exchanges and global crypto trading. This idea crashed when the Quoine Team realised that they also needed to move FIAT across accounts to make that work but ultimately, FIAT transactions are much slower than digital ones. More than one year has passed since then and unsurprisingly, not a single point of the white paper has been accomplished: Quoine/Liquid is no just an exchange which has simply lost some of its market share against more successful competitors. And still, they produce statements such as:
‘’We envision QASH could even become the preferred standard Token used to pay for all services provided by the broader financial industry…’’
‘’QUOINE is already in discussion with multiple financial institutions, FinTech startups and partners to make QASH the preferred payment Token for upcoming and existing financial services.’’
In Q2 2019, Qash will have its own blockchain...
In Q3 2019, Quoine will be granted a banking license...
The harsh reality is that Qash has never been used to pay a single penny of any financial transaction and there are no financial institutions considering it as a payment option. Quoine is not applying for or being granted a banking license, and Qash will not have its own blockchain in 2019, or ever. Of all the complex diagrams, flowcharts, and mind-blowing dreams advertised in their 2017 white paper, nothing has been achieved, not even the internal order book which was meant to simply aggregate Quoine’s own internal order books. Fourteen months after starting their project, Quoine officials have not been able to name a single Exchange officially onboard for the Liquid project. We remain unconvinced by their claim: ‘’some of the exchanges we are in contact with do not feel comfortable to have their names disclosed…’’ And while investors’ expectations have been pushed aside, a massive effort has been deployed to build up a squadron of sycophants called ‘community champions’, meant to simulate participation and interest for the few genuine members of the chats in which they participate, as well as surveilling and banning any critical users or negativity on media such as Telegram, Reddit and others. Quoine has simply chosen to pocket investors’ money and put up something to soothe their anger and despair. However, most of the funds are still held by the issuer and will be likely returned to purchasers if a legal class action is put forward. Read more and join the class action here: http://ico-class-action.org/class-actions/qash-liquid
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Nitesh Gupta metworld Trading DMCC causes of Brexit
Britain's beyond differs from that of its eu neighbours. Its position as an unconquered island nation, an extended way of life of parliamentary democracy and an ingrained appropriate sense that in the long run it is able to be searching after itself, represents it out from a few other european nations. It became not that sympathetic to the european best. It joined in 1973, alternatively because there failed to look like any additional preference than enrolling in the subsequent a whole lot greater wealthy Western ecu democracies. it is also true that for years, the British political magnificence as well as press performed an anti ecu sport, wherein made up debts at the horrors of the ecu have been plastered across the front pages of tabloid newspapers. The drip drip effect of 40 years of horrific press insurance become tough to reverse in a 4 month referendum campaign. Britain isn't the simplest european nation in which politicians agree one aspect in Brussels, then pass domestic as well as blame Brussels for the selection. but in Britain the sport become played with an awful lot extra intensity and on a larger scale than in a few different states. a much extra latest distinct British act, that also had a significant element to have amusing inside the referendum impact, become the 2003 judgement of the Blair federal authorities to permit total independence of movement rights to each of the 2004 accession states. Being a outcome, on one January 2004, whole loose movement changed into prolonged via the United Kingdom (as well as ireland) to every of the ten accession states, from eastern and important Europe, the Baltic States, Malta and Cyprus. Their Treaty rights to droop complete unfastened motion of employees for 7 seasons turned into maintained through all the other Western ecu Member States besides Sweden. As the United Kingdom, Sweden and ireland had been the most effective 3 states which supplied entire loose campaign the amount of individuals looking for work within the united kingdom from the Baltic and CEE states surged. obviously, it became a British choice now not to exercise their Treaty rights to constrain free motion. although, in the ecu Referendum plan it wasn't hard for the go away campaigners to pin the surge of personnel into the UK, on the european, in place of the British government. This particular inflow became bolstered through the monetary issues. because the Eurozone failed to provide development across its nineteen participants, in addition to the financial system of debtor nations contracted sharply, a long way more folks arrived from southern eire and Europe. The British financial system speedy righted itself after the troubles, as the UK was in have an effect on of the personal forex of its, and debt and may set up good monetary stabilizers. however, London then really located that because of the Eurozone's dependency to fiscally strict financial guidelines, the United Kingdom changed into additionally performing because the employment shock absorber for Frankfurt. The massive quantity of individuals shifting to the United Kingdom from the CEE states, and additionally from southern Europe appears to had been a big factor in turning the go away vote. it's obvious, in regions of the land, inclusive of London as well as the principle cities, in which there had lengthy been overseas groups, the British had been lots extra calm about immigration and voted greatly to remain in the Union. nonetheless, in areas of the kingdom which had just currently visible a surge of absolutely new remote places employees, they voted significantly to depart. The depart vote likewise surged in additives of the nation wherein there has been very small new or maybe ancient immigration, but where voters feared that immigration may ultimately arrive within the neighbourhoods of theirs. consequently even those exclusively British reasons of the referendum virtually leave vote had been greatly affected by european actions and developments. additionally, there are a diffusion of usual concerns, anger and issues approximately the european Union across the continent and that within the united kingdom reinforced the leave vote. in all likelihood the most important is truely the malfunction of the Eurozone to occasionally reform itself so it's the identical capability as a few other sovereign issuer of currency to pool debt, as well as supply monetary stabilisers and the transfers to perform a unmarried forex region. Or perhaps organise a gentle Euro go out software for the states with whom Germany mainly is not equipped to pool fiscal switch rules and money owed. The' kicking the can' down the road with sovereign and bank account debt, mixed with endless monetary contraction rules imposed by means of Frankfurt in addition to Brussels have tremendously undermined assistance for the Union, and now not only inside the united kingdom Technically of path, one may additionally say that the United Kingdom isn't a fellow member of the Eurozone and therefore of what rely is it to London? nevertheless, as defined above, very adverse monetary regulations in Brussels and Frankfurt, have a direct impact on the UK, flooding Britain with even greater parents searching for paintings. similarly it brings down the really worth of the single industry to the United Kingdom, as Eurozone financial rigidity squeezes monetary development. much extra broadly, the sight of satisfied european state states remaining problem to monetary policies that beaten the financial possibilities of theirs and blighted a technology did not move down properly in London. watching it economically illiterate drama over plenty of the previous decade, and the harmful economic effects of its has appreciably impaired the legitimacy of the entire european undertaking. A full-size portion of the British organisation and intellectual sessions, who were glaringly seasoned-eu, started rethinking the guide of theirs for the Union. This very same exercise of euro de-legitimization of the european is additionally underway across the continent. This ranges from nationalists from the French the front national, to the Italian 5 famous person movement along side German ADF producing increasing political assist at the rear of the Eurozone's problems to an emptying of organization and intellectual assistance for the Union.
That is not true. Opinion is very much split within the investment banks and there is no right or wrong answer. I personally don't believe at all that the crisis was caused by 'poor people' - and I don't like that sort of categorization of people in the first place. There are perhaps 15/20 different institutions you could blame for the crisis, there's no way of isolating individuals. I'm not sure what exactly you think GS's hand in the Greece affair was. Of course it's a sad story and I feel remorseful - I recently donated £50,000 at a charity ball to help rebuild one of the islands which has almost been burned to the ground. But ultimately Greece employed GS at the time because they wanted to fudge their finances so as to meet entry requirements for the Euro i.e. the greek government was knowingly employing GS to help perform an extremely risky task - GS didn't force anything upon them. If the experiment explodes 10 years later (as it did), should GS really be the party to blame?
Whatever your breakdown between modules is, you need a 2.1 overall. Even if your average is 60% or 61%, that's enough to get you past the minimum requirements and through to interviews. After that it's up to you - they'll take someone with a good business mind and strong communications skills irrespective of whether they average 60 or 78 or 92. I disagree with him. My job is extremely rewarding and i wouldn't swap it for any other industry at the moment. If you want evidence of people enjoying their jobs look at the number of years they spend at their respective firms. Most of the partners at GS are 'home-grown' and have spent 20/30 years sweating away but don't regret it for a second.
Regulatory capture is a seriously problem not just in banking e.g. also in the energy business. How do you reduce it? It won't happen unless the public demand it, as everyone with power tends to benefit from it and so they won't make meaningful steps to change anything, i.e. its a win win situation for government and business. However it needs more than just 'occupy movements' but rather i am talking the mass voter population.
I work in the energy field in Europe but don't want to get too specific. Day to day we advise natural resource companies on all things financial such as m&a and financing strategy and then execute on their behalf. So I am on the corporate finance side rather than sales and trading. However I work closely with the syndication and sales guys such as if we are executing an IPO or a follow-on share offering.
Bottom 5% is more accurate. 7-8% in a bad year, 3-4% in a good year. It's a fine line between 'cut throat' and having a 'healthy competitive atmosphere'. But we'd be out of business very quickly if we kept firing half of our staff every year...
Read WSO, the forums are full of useful hints and tips especially for non target guys. Depending on what area you are applying for, make sure you know some really good examples and stock pitches as it is amazing how many candidates lack knowledge e.g. if applying for ECM for god sakes know some of the recent IPO's and likewise for equity research have good stock pitches and have conviction when presenting. Best of luck!
Undergrad course choice is not that important for IBD but obviously for more quant roles you need maths skills Again i am sorry but i am not very clued up on GPA Ok i give you money but first you have to register yourself as a charity so that you can gift aid it and get much more!
I'd say during my first 3 years as an analyst the 'balance' was almost non-existent i.e. i was regularly working 100+ hours/week. Since then it's become easier year by year and i think that's true for most. And yes certainly i would encourage my children to pursue it - not that i have any yet.
And by the way all of us are tax payers too. The top 5% contribute approx. 50% of the government's taxation revenue. So if losses are being 'carried by tax-payers' - that doesn't exclude people in the banking industry by any means.
Depends on what entry point - if you do an mba then you apply for associate entry whereas b.comm is an undergrad degree and so you apply for analyst roles. If you do a b.comm at a top university/college and get some internships then you should be well placed. Good luck!
What you choose to study doesn't necessarily determine the industry you'll end up in. We have guys in the office who studied history, languages, even medicine. Just go for what interests you the most and focus on getting high marks.
With regards to backpage.com, the guys on the deal did not do their KYC checks properly. KYC checks are crucial for banks- your reputation and future success is more important than any single customer. Look up riggs bank and the Obiang family and then you'll see!
Yes, apologies. I think some of our deals have been morally reprehensible in the past. The same goes for any major investment bank. But i think we've done a very good job in 'cleaning up our act' over the past few years and the public has played a large part in that. With any luck we will see a much healthier banking industry soon.
There's no typical working day - some days are 18 hours and others are 12. Depends entirely what stage of a deal we are at. Generally I work 5/6 days a week, but keep in email contact with the office 24/7.
Yes, entirely project based. But if we are doing our jobs properly there's not much 'time off' in between.
The industry is always evolving, that's what makes it an exciting industry to be in. I imagine it will take us a good few years to fully regain the trust of certain clients, but ultimately if this whole saga causes us to readdress our methods and practices to improve our service then in the long run it's a positive outcome.
PS. Do you not think people should be fed up with the governments too, as well as the banks?
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